Uncertainty modelling and computation in Bayesian operational modal analysis

• Main Author: Ma, Xinda
• Other Authors: Ivan Au
• Format: Thesis-Doctor of Philosophy
• Language: English
• Published: Nanyang Technological University 2024
• Subjects: Engineering; Operational modal analysis; EM algorithm; Noise disparity; Noise correlation; Hessian; Monte Carlo simulation
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/174875
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

The design and assessment of structural dynamics behaviour often rely on the ‘modal properties’ (primarily modal frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of a structure. Modal properties are frequently identified in vibration related applications as their information can benefit design theory validation and in-situ property updating and monitoring. Given the prospect of flexibility and high implementation economy, operational modal analysis (OMA) aims to identify the modal properties using only ambient vibration response whose amplitude can be small. When instrument noise becomes a non-negligible part of measured data, the identified result can have significant uncertainty, calling for proper uncertainty quantification. Amidst the complex composition of ambient vibration data of civil structures, conventional noise assumption may not always apply. Motivated by issues about uncertainty modelling and computation, this thesis contributes to the theory and computational algorithm of OMA from a Bayesian perspective in the frequency domain. Focusing on the resonance band of vibration modes, a Bayesian probabilistic approach provides a fundamental mathematical framework for OMA. The ‘posterior’ (i.e., given data) most probable value (MPV) of modal properties maximising the likelihood of data informs about the best estimate. The uncertainty associated with the estimate is quantified by the posterior covariance matrix, which can be calculated as the inverse of the Hessian of negative log-likelihood function (NLLF) at the MPV. Existing formulations assume independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) prediction errors among different channels, which account for both instrument noise and modelling error. While the assumption significantly simplifies theory and computation, and may not matter when the signal-to-noise (s/n) ratio is high, it is prone to be violated in OMA. For example, large disparity among noise intensities may exist, and significant correlation can occur because of the presence of unmodelled dynamics, which may affect identification results. To understand and manage the consequence of these potential violations, a comprehensive investigation on the effect of prediction error models with different statistical assumptions is presented in this work. Beyond the i.i.d. assumption, two generalised prediction error models have been considered to account for the disparity and correlation that may arise in applications. Such investigation was previously hindered by computational issues because the general prediction error models feature more parameters carrying somewhat different mathematical roles from the existing ones, making the computation of posterior MPV and covariance matrix more challenging in the first place. As a contribution to computation and enabling scientific investigation, new efficient algorithms applicable to general prediction error models are developed in this work for their computation. As a contribution to theory, a mathematical analogy for general noise is established with i.i.d. model for OMA problems. Not only does this provide a simple approximate way for handling general noise with existing tools based on i.i.d. assumption, it also allows the understanding and experience accumulated with i.i.d. model to be generalised. As a spin-off of this opportunity, asymptotic formulae for identification uncertainty are developed for general prediction error models in this work, which yield a generalised definition for s/n ratio that provides a fundamental quantification of data quality in OMA. The theory and algorithms are developed and tested against synthetic, laboratory and field data. As a further contribution to computation, motivated by existing overheads and hurdles in computer code development, this work proposes an alternative semi-analytical means for calculating the Hessian of NLLF in OMA. The proposed method explores a mathematical identity in the theory of expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm to allow the Hessian matrix to be calculated via Monte Carlo simulation, which offers an alternative means for counter-checking/benchmarking during computer code development. Theoretical implications of the identity are also explored, and numerical examples are presented to illustrate implementation aspects.