DCEnt‐PredictiveNet: a novel explainable hybrid model for time series forecasting

• Main Authors: Sudarshan, Vidya K., Ramachandra, Reshma A., Ojha, Smit, Tan, Ru-San
• Other Authors: College of Computing and Data Science
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: 2024
• Subjects: Computer and Information Science; Time series forecasting; COVID prediction
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/180716
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

This work presents a novel hybrid framework called DCEnt-PredictiveNet (deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) + entropy + support vector regressor (SVR)) that concatenate both deep and handcrafted features for time series data analysis and forecasting. From the discrete wavelet transform coefficients of input time series data, computed four different handcrafted entropy features, which were then concatenated with deep features extracted using a modified DCNN. The concatenated deep and handcrafted feature vector was then fed to a SVR for prediction. The DCEnt-PredictiveNet framework was trained and tested on three time series datasets of real-world COVID-19, stock price and traffic information, and achieved mean absolute percentage errors of 0.03 %, 1.53 % and 11.41 % for daily cumulative COVID-19 positive cases, closing stock price, and hourly traffic (vehicle numbers) at one junction predictions, respectively. In addition, we incorporated local interpretable model-agnostic explanations and Shapley additive explanations methods into DCEnt-PredictiveNet to enable visualization of significant features that contributed to the model's decision-making, thereby enhancing its explainability. Our DCEnt-PredictiveNet model yielded promising and interpretable forecasting results, which can facilitate advance resource planning in hospitals for incoming COVID-19 patients, stock market investment planning, and efficient traffic control management.