Accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis

The available extensive ship activity data enables employing a complex data-driven resistance-based power model to estimate ship's instantaneous power, and thus the ship's fuel consumption. The Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model emerges as a prominent example of such models. However,...

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Main Authors: Luo, Xi, Yan, Ran, Xu, Lang, Wang, Shuaian
Other Authors: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2024
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Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10356/180717
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-1807172024-10-22T00:43:15Z Accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis Luo, Xi Yan, Ran Xu, Lang Wang, Shuaian School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering Fuel consumption prediction Ship traffic emissions assessment model The available extensive ship activity data enables employing a complex data-driven resistance-based power model to estimate ship's instantaneous power, and thus the ship's fuel consumption. The Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model emerges as a prominent example of such models. However, the performance of the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model in ship's fuel consumption estimation is rarely verified by real fuel consumption data. Hence, this study aims to validate the accuracy of the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model using real fuel consumption data and evaluates its applicability in terms of input features. Situations where the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model shows large errors are identified to analyze its applicability. Furthermore, the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model is compared with other popular fuel consumption prediction models, including the propeller law, the gradient-boosted regression tree model, and two grey box models. A systematical analysis is conducted to evaluate the applicability of various fuel consumption prediction models in different sailing scenarios, providing insights in selecting appropriate models for accurate ship's fuel consumption estimation. The findings contribute to optimizing the ship energy efficiency and facilitating the transition to alternative energy options, ultimately leading to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of the maritime industry. Ministry of Education (MOE) The author acknowledges funding support from Singapore MOE AcRF Tier 1 Grant (RG75/23). The author also acknowledges funding support from National Natural Science Foundation of China (52302393). This work was also supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant Nos. 72071173, 72371221], and the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China [Project number, HKSAR RGC TRS T32-707/22-N]. 2024-10-22T00:43:14Z 2024-10-22T00:43:14Z 2024 Journal Article Luo, X., Yan, R., Xu, L. & Wang, S. (2024). Accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis. Energy, 310, 133187-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133187 0360-5442 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/180717 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133187 2-s2.0-85204503453 310 133187 en RG75/23 Energy © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic Engineering
Fuel consumption prediction
Ship traffic emissions assessment model
spellingShingle Engineering
Fuel consumption prediction
Ship traffic emissions assessment model
Luo, Xi
Yan, Ran
Xu, Lang
Wang, Shuaian
Accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis
description The available extensive ship activity data enables employing a complex data-driven resistance-based power model to estimate ship's instantaneous power, and thus the ship's fuel consumption. The Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model emerges as a prominent example of such models. However, the performance of the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model in ship's fuel consumption estimation is rarely verified by real fuel consumption data. Hence, this study aims to validate the accuracy of the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model using real fuel consumption data and evaluates its applicability in terms of input features. Situations where the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model shows large errors are identified to analyze its applicability. Furthermore, the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model is compared with other popular fuel consumption prediction models, including the propeller law, the gradient-boosted regression tree model, and two grey box models. A systematical analysis is conducted to evaluate the applicability of various fuel consumption prediction models in different sailing scenarios, providing insights in selecting appropriate models for accurate ship's fuel consumption estimation. The findings contribute to optimizing the ship energy efficiency and facilitating the transition to alternative energy options, ultimately leading to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of the maritime industry.
author2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
author_facet School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Luo, Xi
Yan, Ran
Xu, Lang
Wang, Shuaian
format Article
author Luo, Xi
Yan, Ran
Xu, Lang
Wang, Shuaian
author_sort Luo, Xi
title Accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis
title_short Accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis
title_full Accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis
title_fullStr Accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis
title_full_unstemmed Accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis
title_sort accuracy and applicability of ship's fuel consumption prediction models: a comprehensive comparative analysis
publishDate 2024
url https://hdl.handle.net/10356/180717
_version_ 1814777721246449664