Historical institutionalist analysis of low-carbon energy transition in the Philippines and Indonesia

• Main Author: Sembiring, Margareth Yasintha
• Other Authors: Sulfikar Amir
• Format: Thesis-Doctor of Philosophy
• Language: English
• Published: Nanyang Technological University 2024
• Subjects: Social Sciences; International relations; Comparative politics; Global environmental governance
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/180851
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

This dissertation seeks to examine why developing countries still take up low-carbon energy transition agenda despite financial and technological hurdles, and why some of them implement the agenda faster than others. This study argues that despite financial and technological hurdles, a developing country still decides to implement low-carbon energy transition agenda because the State positively evaluates the benefits of renewable energy development for the country’s economic and energy security interests. The pace of progress is subsequently influenced by State involvement in the energy sector, its interests and priorities, and its relation with the private sector, which are formed through historical sequences and processes over time. This study employs mixed research methods comprising longitudinal and cross-sectional approaches; and data collection methods comprising archival, secondary data and interviews. To enable an in-depth investigation of the different contexts and interactions that have yielded to different policy outcomes at different points of time in developing countries, this thesis employs a qualitative comparative approach using the Philippines and Indonesia as case studies. Applying historical institutionalism within the sociotechnical transition’s Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework, this study identifies four periods of analysis and examines how the interactions between two variables (State involvement in the energy sector and State relation with the private sector in the specific industry in the energy sector) have influenced the transformation of energy policies leading to renewable energy development within the four periods in both countries. It applies historical institutionalism’s critical juncture, path dependency, and incremental change concepts to examine the evolution of the study variables through time, which then gives a comprehensive understanding of the reasons for developing countries to take up low-carbon energy transition agenda and explains why some of them show better progress than others. The study finds that while both the Philippines and Indonesia have assessed renewable development as a viable solution to their domestic needs, the Philippines regarded renewable energy expansion more favourably given its longstanding energy security interest in developing indigenous renewable energy sources. The comparative analysis also shows that the Philippines was more determined to pursue the agenda and was more willing to create a conducive environment by supporting the private sector to achieve its renewable energy objectives compared to Indonesia. These observations also help to formulate a more realistic assessment of the prospects of low-carbon energy transition processes in both countries. There is more promise in the Philippines, while one could anticipate a more difficult trajectory for low-carbon energy transition in Indonesia moving forward.