The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions
Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, m...
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2024
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Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Asia Cardiovascular disease |
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Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Asia Cardiovascular disease Goh, Rachel Sze Jen Chong, Bryan Jayabaskaran, Jayanth Jauhari, Silingga Metta Chan, Siew Pang Kueh, Martin Tze Wah Shankar, Kannan Li, Henry Chin, Yip Han Kong, Gwyneth Anand, Vickram Vijay Chan, Keith Andrew Sukmawati, Indah Toh, Sue Anne Muthiah, Mark Wang, Jiong-Wei Tse, Gary Mehta, Anurag Fong, Alan Baskaran, Lohendran Zhong, Liang Yap, Jonathan Yeo, Khung Keong Hausenloy, Derek J. Tan, Jack Wei Chieh Chao, Tze-Fan Li, Yi-Heng Lim, Shir Lynn Chan, Koo Hui Loh, Poay Huan Chai, Ping Yeo, Tiong Cheng Low, Adrian F. Lee, Chi Hang Foo, Roger Tan, Huay Cheem Yip, James Rao, Sarita Honda, Satoshi Yasuda, Satoshi Kajiya, Takashi Goto, Shinya Yan, Bryan P. Zhou, Xin Figtree, Gemma A. Mamas, Mamas A. Kim, Yongcheol Jeong, Young-Hoon Kim, Moo Hyun Park, Duk-Woo Park, Seung-Jung Richards, A. Mark Chan, Mark Y. Lip, Gregory Y. H. Chew, Nicholas W. S. The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions |
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Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Findings: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). Interpretation: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. |
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Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) |
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Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) Goh, Rachel Sze Jen Chong, Bryan Jayabaskaran, Jayanth Jauhari, Silingga Metta Chan, Siew Pang Kueh, Martin Tze Wah Shankar, Kannan Li, Henry Chin, Yip Han Kong, Gwyneth Anand, Vickram Vijay Chan, Keith Andrew Sukmawati, Indah Toh, Sue Anne Muthiah, Mark Wang, Jiong-Wei Tse, Gary Mehta, Anurag Fong, Alan Baskaran, Lohendran Zhong, Liang Yap, Jonathan Yeo, Khung Keong Hausenloy, Derek J. Tan, Jack Wei Chieh Chao, Tze-Fan Li, Yi-Heng Lim, Shir Lynn Chan, Koo Hui Loh, Poay Huan Chai, Ping Yeo, Tiong Cheng Low, Adrian F. Lee, Chi Hang Foo, Roger Tan, Huay Cheem Yip, James Rao, Sarita Honda, Satoshi Yasuda, Satoshi Kajiya, Takashi Goto, Shinya Yan, Bryan P. Zhou, Xin Figtree, Gemma A. Mamas, Mamas A. Kim, Yongcheol Jeong, Young-Hoon Kim, Moo Hyun Park, Duk-Woo Park, Seung-Jung Richards, A. Mark Chan, Mark Y. Lip, Gregory Y. H. Chew, Nicholas W. S. |
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Article |
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Goh, Rachel Sze Jen Chong, Bryan Jayabaskaran, Jayanth Jauhari, Silingga Metta Chan, Siew Pang Kueh, Martin Tze Wah Shankar, Kannan Li, Henry Chin, Yip Han Kong, Gwyneth Anand, Vickram Vijay Chan, Keith Andrew Sukmawati, Indah Toh, Sue Anne Muthiah, Mark Wang, Jiong-Wei Tse, Gary Mehta, Anurag Fong, Alan Baskaran, Lohendran Zhong, Liang Yap, Jonathan Yeo, Khung Keong Hausenloy, Derek J. Tan, Jack Wei Chieh Chao, Tze-Fan Li, Yi-Heng Lim, Shir Lynn Chan, Koo Hui Loh, Poay Huan Chai, Ping Yeo, Tiong Cheng Low, Adrian F. Lee, Chi Hang Foo, Roger Tan, Huay Cheem Yip, James Rao, Sarita Honda, Satoshi Yasuda, Satoshi Kajiya, Takashi Goto, Shinya Yan, Bryan P. Zhou, Xin Figtree, Gemma A. Mamas, Mamas A. Kim, Yongcheol Jeong, Young-Hoon Kim, Moo Hyun Park, Duk-Woo Park, Seung-Jung Richards, A. Mark Chan, Mark Y. Lip, Gregory Y. H. Chew, Nicholas W. S. |
author_sort |
Goh, Rachel Sze Jen |
title |
The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions |
title_short |
The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions |
title_full |
The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions |
title_fullStr |
The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions |
title_full_unstemmed |
The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions |
title_sort |
burden of cardiovascular disease in asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for east asia, south asia, south-east asia, central asia, and high-income asia pacific regions |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10356/181475 |
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1819113036488638464 |
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sg-ntu-dr.10356-1814752024-12-08T15:39:18Z The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions Goh, Rachel Sze Jen Chong, Bryan Jayabaskaran, Jayanth Jauhari, Silingga Metta Chan, Siew Pang Kueh, Martin Tze Wah Shankar, Kannan Li, Henry Chin, Yip Han Kong, Gwyneth Anand, Vickram Vijay Chan, Keith Andrew Sukmawati, Indah Toh, Sue Anne Muthiah, Mark Wang, Jiong-Wei Tse, Gary Mehta, Anurag Fong, Alan Baskaran, Lohendran Zhong, Liang Yap, Jonathan Yeo, Khung Keong Hausenloy, Derek J. Tan, Jack Wei Chieh Chao, Tze-Fan Li, Yi-Heng Lim, Shir Lynn Chan, Koo Hui Loh, Poay Huan Chai, Ping Yeo, Tiong Cheng Low, Adrian F. Lee, Chi Hang Foo, Roger Tan, Huay Cheem Yip, James Rao, Sarita Honda, Satoshi Yasuda, Satoshi Kajiya, Takashi Goto, Shinya Yan, Bryan P. Zhou, Xin Figtree, Gemma A. Mamas, Mamas A. Kim, Yongcheol Jeong, Young-Hoon Kim, Moo Hyun Park, Duk-Woo Park, Seung-Jung Richards, A. Mark Chan, Mark Y. Lip, Gregory Y. H. Chew, Nicholas W. S. Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Asia Cardiovascular disease Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Findings: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). Interpretation: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. National Medical Research Council (NMRC) Published version This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine’s Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/ NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01). 2024-12-03T05:40:22Z 2024-12-03T05:40:22Z 2024 Journal Article Goh, R. S. J., Chong, B., Jayabaskaran, J., Jauhari, S. M., Chan, S. P., Kueh, M. T. W., Shankar, K., Li, H., Chin, Y. H., Kong, G., Anand, V. V., Chan, K. A., Sukmawati, I., Toh, S. A., Muthiah, M., Wang, J., Tse, G., Mehta, A., Fong, A., ...Chew, N. W. S. (2024). The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 49, 101138-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138 2666-6065 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/181475 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138 39100533 2-s2.0-85198051482 49 101138 en NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03 MH 095:003/008-303 NCSP2.0/2024/ NUHS/NCWS MOH-001277-01 The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). application/pdf |