A quantitative analysis and comparison on mortality in the industrialized developing economies affiliated with China (Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan) using five stochastic mortality models

The entire juxtaposition of having strong developing economies, rising standards of living as well as close geographical, political and even socio-economic proximity to developing China, makes Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan particularly interesting countries to observe in growing Asia. Specifically, stel...

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Main Authors: Tan, Jun Da, Teo, Jeremy Jun Liang, Zhang, Bernice Wanling
Other Authors: Li Ka Ki Jackie
Format: Final Year Project
Language:English
Published: 2010
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10356/35478
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-354782023-05-19T03:30:02Z A quantitative analysis and comparison on mortality in the industrialized developing economies affiliated with China (Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan) using five stochastic mortality models Tan, Jun Da Teo, Jeremy Jun Liang Zhang, Bernice Wanling Li Ka Ki Jackie Nanyang Business School DRNTU::Business::Finance::Actuarial science The entire juxtaposition of having strong developing economies, rising standards of living as well as close geographical, political and even socio-economic proximity to developing China, makes Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan particularly interesting countries to observe in growing Asia. Specifically, stellar life expectancy results achieved by Hong Kong SAR have motivated us to delve into mortality-related comparisons between Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan; hopefully shedding light on the implications of having a fully government funded social security system like that in Hong Kong, as opposed to Taiwan’s partial-government funded system. With that, our research seeks to first explain the life expectancy conundrum through mortality modelling and analysis on economic data and thereafter, to analyse the impact of longevity risk on the social security systems in both countries. Comparing qualities of various models, a cohort-adjusted CBD model was selected as the best stochastic model for fit with both countries. We were thus able identify that Hong Kong SAR has a higher life expectancy due to the stronger trend in mortality improvements for lower ages compared to Taiwan. Thereafter, forecasting with the use of a two-dimensional random walk with drift allowed us to measure trend risk and concentration risk. Our findings revealed the precarious situation Hong Kong SAR’s social security system may possibly face. Taiwan’s social security system, on the flipside, has stronger foundations, fuelled with the huge potential for her life expectancy rates to improve. BUSINESS 2010-04-19T06:38:43Z 2010-04-19T06:38:43Z 2010 2010 Final Year Project (FYP) http://hdl.handle.net/10356/35478 en Nanyang Technological University 90 p. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic DRNTU::Business::Finance::Actuarial science
spellingShingle DRNTU::Business::Finance::Actuarial science
Tan, Jun Da
Teo, Jeremy Jun Liang
Zhang, Bernice Wanling
A quantitative analysis and comparison on mortality in the industrialized developing economies affiliated with China (Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan) using five stochastic mortality models
description The entire juxtaposition of having strong developing economies, rising standards of living as well as close geographical, political and even socio-economic proximity to developing China, makes Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan particularly interesting countries to observe in growing Asia. Specifically, stellar life expectancy results achieved by Hong Kong SAR have motivated us to delve into mortality-related comparisons between Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan; hopefully shedding light on the implications of having a fully government funded social security system like that in Hong Kong, as opposed to Taiwan’s partial-government funded system. With that, our research seeks to first explain the life expectancy conundrum through mortality modelling and analysis on economic data and thereafter, to analyse the impact of longevity risk on the social security systems in both countries. Comparing qualities of various models, a cohort-adjusted CBD model was selected as the best stochastic model for fit with both countries. We were thus able identify that Hong Kong SAR has a higher life expectancy due to the stronger trend in mortality improvements for lower ages compared to Taiwan. Thereafter, forecasting with the use of a two-dimensional random walk with drift allowed us to measure trend risk and concentration risk. Our findings revealed the precarious situation Hong Kong SAR’s social security system may possibly face. Taiwan’s social security system, on the flipside, has stronger foundations, fuelled with the huge potential for her life expectancy rates to improve.
author2 Li Ka Ki Jackie
author_facet Li Ka Ki Jackie
Tan, Jun Da
Teo, Jeremy Jun Liang
Zhang, Bernice Wanling
format Final Year Project
author Tan, Jun Da
Teo, Jeremy Jun Liang
Zhang, Bernice Wanling
author_sort Tan, Jun Da
title A quantitative analysis and comparison on mortality in the industrialized developing economies affiliated with China (Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan) using five stochastic mortality models
title_short A quantitative analysis and comparison on mortality in the industrialized developing economies affiliated with China (Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan) using five stochastic mortality models
title_full A quantitative analysis and comparison on mortality in the industrialized developing economies affiliated with China (Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan) using five stochastic mortality models
title_fullStr A quantitative analysis and comparison on mortality in the industrialized developing economies affiliated with China (Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan) using five stochastic mortality models
title_full_unstemmed A quantitative analysis and comparison on mortality in the industrialized developing economies affiliated with China (Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan) using five stochastic mortality models
title_sort quantitative analysis and comparison on mortality in the industrialized developing economies affiliated with china (hong kong sar and taiwan) using five stochastic mortality models
publishDate 2010
url http://hdl.handle.net/10356/35478
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