Ethnic-wise population forecast for Singapore using Lee Carter model for mortality, fertility and migration.

In this study, we investigate Singapore population using the variant of Lee-Carter model proposed by Hyndman and Ullah. The mortality rates, fertility rates and net migration numbers which form the basis of the population are analysed. Coherent functional forecasting method is adopted to restrict th...

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Main Authors: Goh, Siu Wei., Low, Yik Hua., Ong, Min Sion.
Other Authors: Uditha Balasooriya
Format: Final Year Project
Language:English
Published: 2011
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10356/43843
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-438432023-05-19T07:23:11Z Ethnic-wise population forecast for Singapore using Lee Carter model for mortality, fertility and migration. Goh, Siu Wei. Low, Yik Hua. Ong, Min Sion. Uditha Balasooriya Nanyang Business School DRNTU::Business::Finance::Actuarial science In this study, we investigate Singapore population using the variant of Lee-Carter model proposed by Hyndman and Ullah. The mortality rates, fertility rates and net migration numbers which form the basis of the population are analysed. Coherent functional forecasting method is adopted to restrict the divergence of forecast mortality rates between male and female. The model is applied on Singapore demographics data from 1982 to 2008 to forecast the population from 2009 to 2029. The accuracy of the estimates is assessed by comparing the forecast result against actual data from year 2001 to 2009. Next, the forecast demographic components (mortality, fertility and net migration) between Chinese, Malay and Indian are compared and discussed. Possible evolution in ethnic population trend within Singapore is then justified. The results show that there is an upward trend in Singapore population between years 2009 to 2029. Ethnic-wise forecasts show that Indian population will outnumber Malay population by 2021. There is also increasing proportion of elderly population within the forecast periods. Finally, limitations of the model are discussed and concluding remarks are made at the end of the report with recommendations on possible future research. BUSINESS 2011-04-29T07:56:55Z 2011-04-29T07:56:55Z 2011 2011 Final Year Project (FYP) http://hdl.handle.net/10356/43843 en Nanyang Technological University 85 p. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic DRNTU::Business::Finance::Actuarial science
spellingShingle DRNTU::Business::Finance::Actuarial science
Goh, Siu Wei.
Low, Yik Hua.
Ong, Min Sion.
Ethnic-wise population forecast for Singapore using Lee Carter model for mortality, fertility and migration.
description In this study, we investigate Singapore population using the variant of Lee-Carter model proposed by Hyndman and Ullah. The mortality rates, fertility rates and net migration numbers which form the basis of the population are analysed. Coherent functional forecasting method is adopted to restrict the divergence of forecast mortality rates between male and female. The model is applied on Singapore demographics data from 1982 to 2008 to forecast the population from 2009 to 2029. The accuracy of the estimates is assessed by comparing the forecast result against actual data from year 2001 to 2009. Next, the forecast demographic components (mortality, fertility and net migration) between Chinese, Malay and Indian are compared and discussed. Possible evolution in ethnic population trend within Singapore is then justified. The results show that there is an upward trend in Singapore population between years 2009 to 2029. Ethnic-wise forecasts show that Indian population will outnumber Malay population by 2021. There is also increasing proportion of elderly population within the forecast periods. Finally, limitations of the model are discussed and concluding remarks are made at the end of the report with recommendations on possible future research.
author2 Uditha Balasooriya
author_facet Uditha Balasooriya
Goh, Siu Wei.
Low, Yik Hua.
Ong, Min Sion.
format Final Year Project
author Goh, Siu Wei.
Low, Yik Hua.
Ong, Min Sion.
author_sort Goh, Siu Wei.
title Ethnic-wise population forecast for Singapore using Lee Carter model for mortality, fertility and migration.
title_short Ethnic-wise population forecast for Singapore using Lee Carter model for mortality, fertility and migration.
title_full Ethnic-wise population forecast for Singapore using Lee Carter model for mortality, fertility and migration.
title_fullStr Ethnic-wise population forecast for Singapore using Lee Carter model for mortality, fertility and migration.
title_full_unstemmed Ethnic-wise population forecast for Singapore using Lee Carter model for mortality, fertility and migration.
title_sort ethnic-wise population forecast for singapore using lee carter model for mortality, fertility and migration.
publishDate 2011
url http://hdl.handle.net/10356/43843
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