A quantitative analysis of mortality index linearity in Lee-Carter model and its implications : observations from 37 countries

Lee-Carter’s proposed model established the foundation of fitting and forecasting mortality. Howver, several studies, which lead to the improvement of Lee-Carter’s proposed model, questioned the validitty of the method’s assumptions. An unresolved doubt in their analysis is the assumption of an almo...

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Main Authors: Tanadi, Anastasia Bernardine, Ng, Ian Shang, Ee, Cherylyn Xiu Ying
Other Authors: Li Ka Ki Jackie
Format: Final Year Project
Language:English
Published: 2011
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10356/44185
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-441852023-05-19T06:16:16Z A quantitative analysis of mortality index linearity in Lee-Carter model and its implications : observations from 37 countries Tanadi, Anastasia Bernardine Ng, Ian Shang Ee, Cherylyn Xiu Ying Li Ka Ki Jackie Nanyang Business School DRNTU::Business::Finance::Actuarial science Lee-Carter’s proposed model established the foundation of fitting and forecasting mortality. Howver, several studies, which lead to the improvement of Lee-Carter’s proposed model, questioned the validitty of the method’s assumptions. An unresolved doubt in their analysis is the assumption of an almost linear kt series. This uncertainty has formed the basis of our investigation. Our research seeks to test this assumption on a wider span of population; 37 countries in order to gain a broader perspective. We first seek explain the reasons behind the non-linearity and the appearance of kinks in the kt series. To further distinguish the kinks in the series, we have classified data into different intervaled fitting periods and identified its position. We will then delve further into analysing the kinks in the series by excluding the kink in forecasting the mortality index and life expectancy of each country. Our analysis reveals that in general excluding the kinks in kt series improves the linearity however, may not improve the forecasting ability. BUSINESS 2011-05-27T08:21:52Z 2011-05-27T08:21:52Z 2011 2011 Final Year Project (FYP) http://hdl.handle.net/10356/44185 en Nanyang Technological University 88 p. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic DRNTU::Business::Finance::Actuarial science
spellingShingle DRNTU::Business::Finance::Actuarial science
Tanadi, Anastasia Bernardine
Ng, Ian Shang
Ee, Cherylyn Xiu Ying
A quantitative analysis of mortality index linearity in Lee-Carter model and its implications : observations from 37 countries
description Lee-Carter’s proposed model established the foundation of fitting and forecasting mortality. Howver, several studies, which lead to the improvement of Lee-Carter’s proposed model, questioned the validitty of the method’s assumptions. An unresolved doubt in their analysis is the assumption of an almost linear kt series. This uncertainty has formed the basis of our investigation. Our research seeks to test this assumption on a wider span of population; 37 countries in order to gain a broader perspective. We first seek explain the reasons behind the non-linearity and the appearance of kinks in the kt series. To further distinguish the kinks in the series, we have classified data into different intervaled fitting periods and identified its position. We will then delve further into analysing the kinks in the series by excluding the kink in forecasting the mortality index and life expectancy of each country. Our analysis reveals that in general excluding the kinks in kt series improves the linearity however, may not improve the forecasting ability.
author2 Li Ka Ki Jackie
author_facet Li Ka Ki Jackie
Tanadi, Anastasia Bernardine
Ng, Ian Shang
Ee, Cherylyn Xiu Ying
format Final Year Project
author Tanadi, Anastasia Bernardine
Ng, Ian Shang
Ee, Cherylyn Xiu Ying
author_sort Tanadi, Anastasia Bernardine
title A quantitative analysis of mortality index linearity in Lee-Carter model and its implications : observations from 37 countries
title_short A quantitative analysis of mortality index linearity in Lee-Carter model and its implications : observations from 37 countries
title_full A quantitative analysis of mortality index linearity in Lee-Carter model and its implications : observations from 37 countries
title_fullStr A quantitative analysis of mortality index linearity in Lee-Carter model and its implications : observations from 37 countries
title_full_unstemmed A quantitative analysis of mortality index linearity in Lee-Carter model and its implications : observations from 37 countries
title_sort quantitative analysis of mortality index linearity in lee-carter model and its implications : observations from 37 countries
publishDate 2011
url http://hdl.handle.net/10356/44185
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