Close contact networks and the spread of infectious diseases

• Main Author: Lim Guan Kheng.
• Other Authors: Cheong Siew Ann
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: 2012
• Subjects: DRNTU::Engineering::Electrical and electronic engineering::Control and instrumentation::Medical electronics
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10356/47718
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

The spread of infectious diseases in urban cities is not well understood using classic epidemic models. For this reason an agent-based modeling approach is used to simulate sociological processes and study the close contact networks created given different social scenarios. In particular, the focus of this project will be on the setting of an open area and a shopping centre. The objective of this project is to model the behavior of agents in terms of floor field cellular automata, measure the close contact network from simulations and characterize the close contact network. The results of the open area and shopping centre simulation show that for thresholds of S=3 to S=5, it takes less time for the network to be connected in the shopping centre setting. The close contact network in the shopping centre setting compared with the open area setting is more interconnected and each agent has more contacts. Consequently, the risk of infectious disease spreading in the shopping centre setting is higher. Therefore, it is believed that the risk of infectious disease spreading is dependent on the close contact threshold and the social setting. This simulation model does not predict the spread of infectious disease, but it does offer an insight into the close contact network established through close interpersonal contact in urban setting like the shopping centre. Through the study of additional social settings, it would enable us to have a better understanding of the spread of infectious diseases in urban settings.