The effects of housing policies and macroeconomic factors on Singapore housing market : an ARDL approach

• Main Authors: Li, Jucai, Zhang, Xiuya, Yue, Mu
• Other Authors: Wang Wei Siang
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: 2012
• Subjects: DRNTU::Humanities
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10356/48888
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

This study examines the impacts of several macroeconomic factors including the real GDP per capita, housing loan rate, housing supply and foreign population rate and the government housing policies on the Singapore public resale and condominium markets using the quarterly data from 1991 quarter 1 to 2011 quarter 1. The empirical study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach for estimating models of long run price determination and short run price dynamics. A new method is adopted to define the dummy variables for the government housing policies so that the initial and subsequent policy effects could be evaluated separately. The results show that there are long run relationships among the housing prices and the examined macroeconomic factors and housing policies in both markets. In particular, the public resale market is mainly affected by the housing policies, while the condominium market is influenced by both the macroeconomic factors and the housing policies. Furthermore, in both markets, the error correction models show that the short run price deviations can be corrected to the long run equilibriums through the negatively significant error correction terms.