Soup-of-Group forecasting of large earthquakes.

• Main Author: Tan, Teck Liang.
• Other Authors: Cheong Siew Ann
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: 2013
• Subjects: DRNTU::Science::Physics
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10356/51004
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

This project focuses on the use of a collective model (which is referred to as the ‘soup-of-groups’ (SOG) model) to analyze, explain, and predict earthquakes using the high-resolution earthquake catalogs of Taiwan and New Zealand. In the SOG model, suppression of smaller earthquakes necessarily occur prior to a large earthquake. Based on this understanding we developed two precursors, namely (1) the time interval SOG signature; and (2) the integrated energy SOG signature. We also made use of the spatial localization feature in the model to improve signal-to-noise ratio in the SOG precursors. We found convincing evidences from both precursors to support the suppression of smaller earthquakes by a localized SOG giant cluster, and is able to demonstrate the predictive power of the SOG model using the Sep 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan as a test case.