Post-nuclear disarmament trajectories of Ukraine and Kazakhstan

• Main Author: Keoni Indrabayu Marzuki
• Other Authors: Rajesh Manohar Basrur
• Format: Theses and Dissertations
• Language: English
• Published: 2015
• Subjects: DRNTU::Social sciences::Political science
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10356/65498
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

The diverging post-nuclear disarmament trajectories oftwo former Soviet countries Ukraine and Kazakhstan - in light ofthe recent Ukrainian crisis present a critical study for nuclear disarmament and nuclear politics in general. The different outcome of nuclear disarmament is particularly confounding as both countries experience similar circumstances, namely the positive incentives and assurance that both countries secured during the times of disarmament, threat perception towards Russia as the dominant power of the region and Russian dominance over the affairs of both Ukraine and Kazakhstan. This dissertation argues that the diverging post-nuclear disarmament is heavily influenced by the strategic choice ofboth countries vis-a-vis Russia. Ukraine chooses to balance against Russia, while Kazakhstan opts to bandwagon with it instead. Ukraine's balancing act is primarily reflected on Ukraine's role inGUAMcooperatives, along with Georgia, Uzbekistan andMoldova, to resist Russia's dominance in the PostSoviet space. Another testament to Ukraine's balancing strategy is evident on its aspiration to integrate with the West (both NATO and the European Union). On the contrary, Kazakhstan opts to align with Russia despite the rocky relation ofbetween the two countries. Isolation to the international community and dependence to Russia are several variables that resulted in Kazakhstan's strategic choice. In addition to the respective strategic choice ofboth countries, the changing outlook ofRussia serves as a catalyst ofthe diverging trajectories. The dissertation also believes that the diverging outcome and negative consequences ofnuclear disarmament experienced by Ukraine may impede global disarmament effort as nuclear aspirants and nuclear-armed countries may interpret the diverging trajectories as a possible scenario that could befall them if they cease to pursue their nuclear aspiration and/or relinquish their nuclear arsenal.