Economic interdependence and international conflict : Sino-Vietnamese relations between 2011 and 2014

• Main Author: Bos, Lieke Agnes Elisabeth
• Other Authors: Pascal Vennesson
• Format: Theses and Dissertations
• Language: English
• Published: 2015
• Subjects: DRNTU::Social sciences::Political science
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10356/65503
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

In order to find out the effect of economic interdependence on international conflict, in particular between China and Vietnam,l studied the Sino-Vietnamese relation between October 2011 and October 2014 in accordance with Dale Copeland's trade expectations theory. Becauseof China's more assertive way of dealing with the South China Sea dispute, Vietnam has been internationalising their dispute as well as strengthening its relations with other regional powers in order to become less dependent on its big neighbour. However, these increasing tensions and a more confrontational approach do not seem to have led to a 'real armed conflict'. Both Vietnam and China tried to de-escalate tension when it became too high in order to prevent a fullscale conflict from happening. Vietnam, as the more dependent country and therefore the main actor studied in trade expectations theory, has a positive expected value of future bilateral trade, and a negative value of conflict with China. A full-blown conflict would therefore not be beneficial for Vietnam. China initially seems to have a positive value of conflict with Vietnam, but high costs of war, because of potential disruption of international trade, would make an armed conflict not in China's best interest either. The Sino-Vietnamese case between October 2011 and October 2014 thus proves trade expectations theory right: because of positive bilateral trade expectations both countries try to avoid a full-blown war despite increasing confrontational strategies and tensions.