Multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication

When a volcano enters a period of unrest it is necessary to assess the threat an eruption will pose. This requires the integration of multiparametric data sets. I present two examples of how different data sets with different levels of uncertainty can be combined to better constrain volcanic hazards...

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Main Author: Winson, Annie Elizabeth Grace
Other Authors: Chris Newhall
Format: Theses and Dissertations
Language:English
Published: 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10356/66030
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-660302023-02-28T16:51:28Z Multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication Winson, Annie Elizabeth Grace Chris Newhall Asian School of the Environment DRNTU::Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes When a volcano enters a period of unrest it is necessary to assess the threat an eruption will pose. This requires the integration of multiparametric data sets. I present two examples of how different data sets with different levels of uncertainty can be combined to better constrain volcanic hazards, and also how well this information is currently being communicated. Firstly, I develop a new database of plinian eruption characteristics and use it to inform a Bayesian Belief Network that calculates the probability of an eruption becoming plinian in style. I show that the presence of an excess gas phase is one of the key factors. Secondly, I integrate geologic field studies with pyroclastic flow and ash fall modeling to improve hazard assessment at Gede volcano, Indonesia. I use this new set of data to produce an event tree for future activity at Gede. Finally, I perform an analysis of the issuance of volcano alert levels worldwide. I find that current success rates of alert issuance are low and suggest that increasing monitoring networks to an optimal level is likely to improve this. ​Doctor of Philosophy (ASE) 2016-03-02T06:58:11Z 2016-03-02T06:58:11Z 2016 Thesis Winson, A. E. G. (2016). Multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication. Doctoral thesis, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. http://hdl.handle.net/10356/66030 10.32657/10356/66030 en 199 p. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic DRNTU::Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes
spellingShingle DRNTU::Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes
Winson, Annie Elizabeth Grace
Multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication
description When a volcano enters a period of unrest it is necessary to assess the threat an eruption will pose. This requires the integration of multiparametric data sets. I present two examples of how different data sets with different levels of uncertainty can be combined to better constrain volcanic hazards, and also how well this information is currently being communicated. Firstly, I develop a new database of plinian eruption characteristics and use it to inform a Bayesian Belief Network that calculates the probability of an eruption becoming plinian in style. I show that the presence of an excess gas phase is one of the key factors. Secondly, I integrate geologic field studies with pyroclastic flow and ash fall modeling to improve hazard assessment at Gede volcano, Indonesia. I use this new set of data to produce an event tree for future activity at Gede. Finally, I perform an analysis of the issuance of volcano alert levels worldwide. I find that current success rates of alert issuance are low and suggest that increasing monitoring networks to an optimal level is likely to improve this.
author2 Chris Newhall
author_facet Chris Newhall
Winson, Annie Elizabeth Grace
format Theses and Dissertations
author Winson, Annie Elizabeth Grace
author_sort Winson, Annie Elizabeth Grace
title Multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication
title_short Multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication
title_full Multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication
title_fullStr Multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication
title_full_unstemmed Multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication
title_sort multiparametric quantification of volcanic hazards for eruption forecasting and communication
publishDate 2016
url http://hdl.handle.net/10356/66030
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