Parallel agent-based demographic simulation

• Main Author: Malhotra, Rahul
• Other Authors: Cai Wentong
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: 2016
• Subjects: DRNTU::Engineering::Computer science and engineering::Computing methodologies::Simulation and modeling; DRNTU::Engineering::Computer science and engineering::Computer applications::Social and behavioral sciences
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10356/66898
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

Demographic simulation is the study of dynamic living populations within a region, encompassing the study of their size, structure and distribution, as well as, any spatial and/or temporal changes within them. Traditionally, demographic simulators have focused on representing populations as aggregations sharing similar characteristics, while using stochastic models to simulate changes in their numbers. In this project I explored the applications of agent-based modelling to the field of demographic simulation. Agent-based models work by simulating the observed behaviours and interactions of individuals to model larger multifaceted systems which are too complicated to model through stochastic means. Agent-based models also allow for a much richer level of data to be extracted, down to the individual, and when aggregated still provides an overall picture of the population being simulated. Due to the high overhead required to simulate millions of individual agents, agent based demographic simulation is usually very time consuming. To solve this I explore the applications of parallel & distributed discrete event simulation to allow for a more scalable and efficient method of simulation. The project culminated in my implementation of an agent-based model to simulate the incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus within Singapore, with the aim of forecasting the prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus within the city state in the years to come. This was done through the modification of an existing parallel agent-based demographic simulator called YADES (Yet Another DEmographic Simulator) developed by Onggo et al. [1] [2].