Dengue network analysis, modeling and simulation

• Main Author: Gaurav, Sharma
• Other Authors: Xiao Gaoxi
• Format: Theses and Dissertations
• Language: English
• Published: 2016
• Subjects: DRNTU::Engineering
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10356/68947
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission in human societies occurs through the interaction between human beings and female Aedes mosquitoes, namely, Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus. Dengue represents a serious health threat in the Tropics, owing to the year-round presence of Aedes mosquito vectors, and the lack of anti-viral drugs or vaccines. At present, the only effective method of controlling the disease is to control vector mosquitoes. Considering the dispersal of mosquitoes and human mobility during dengue transmission process, the analysis of spatial-temporal patterns of dengue is of importance. In this study, we have studied the dengue spread on spatial and temporal basis using network analysis, modeling and simulation approaches. The data for the number of cases reported from all the locations in Singapore was provided and it was visualized by varying different parameters to obtain the spreading pattern of the disease over the island on spatial as well as temporal basis. Approaches to model the network on Small World Networks and Scale Free Networks were explored and the network exhibited characteristics of these networks to a large extent. Areas which serve as the hubs of breeding and transmission of virus have been identified and these are the areas which need to be targeted strategically to minimize the risk of virus spreading across the island. The networks were also analysed to see if they have any correlation with the wind patterns, temperature variations and rainfall distribution and observations have been duly made with respect to these criteria.