Solar irradiance prediction with ground-based sky images to solve solar intermittencies

Solar intermittency is a critical issue that pullbacks the applications of solar photovoltaic generation in modern power systems. High precision short-term solar irradiance prediction is essential to foresee the ramp-down events due to weather change so that the system will be able to react accordin...

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Main Author: Goh, Kuen Luen
Other Authors: Gooi Hoay Beng
Format: Theses and Dissertations
Language:English
Published: 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10356/68992
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-689922023-07-04T15:41:20Z Solar irradiance prediction with ground-based sky images to solve solar intermittencies Goh, Kuen Luen Gooi Hoay Beng School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering DRNTU::Engineering::Electrical and electronic engineering::Power electronics Solar intermittency is a critical issue that pullbacks the applications of solar photovoltaic generation in modern power systems. High precision short-term solar irradiance prediction is essential to foresee the ramp-down events due to weather change so that the system will be able to react accordingly and maintain the system stability and power quality. This thesis describes one of the methods for forecasting solar irradiance based on micro-scale information, i.e. sky images captured by Total Sky Imager (TSI). The sky images will be processed to determine the cloud cover and compared with 1-minute-ago sky image to analyze the cloud movement by using the optical flow algorithm. The cloud condition of the next minute will be predicted and consequently the solar irradiance values will be calculated based on the program developed in this program. The sample results taken in this project show that the program is able to forecast solar irradiance for the 1-minute forecast horizon with mean prediction error of 8.15%. Depending on different locations and applications, the same algorithm can be applied accordingly by calibrating the threshold value for the cloud determination algorithm and kt value for the solar irradiance calculation. Master of Science (Power Engineering) 2016-08-23T03:10:57Z 2016-08-23T03:10:57Z 2016 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10356/68992 en 85 p. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic DRNTU::Engineering::Electrical and electronic engineering::Power electronics
spellingShingle DRNTU::Engineering::Electrical and electronic engineering::Power electronics
Goh, Kuen Luen
Solar irradiance prediction with ground-based sky images to solve solar intermittencies
description Solar intermittency is a critical issue that pullbacks the applications of solar photovoltaic generation in modern power systems. High precision short-term solar irradiance prediction is essential to foresee the ramp-down events due to weather change so that the system will be able to react accordingly and maintain the system stability and power quality. This thesis describes one of the methods for forecasting solar irradiance based on micro-scale information, i.e. sky images captured by Total Sky Imager (TSI). The sky images will be processed to determine the cloud cover and compared with 1-minute-ago sky image to analyze the cloud movement by using the optical flow algorithm. The cloud condition of the next minute will be predicted and consequently the solar irradiance values will be calculated based on the program developed in this program. The sample results taken in this project show that the program is able to forecast solar irradiance for the 1-minute forecast horizon with mean prediction error of 8.15%. Depending on different locations and applications, the same algorithm can be applied accordingly by calibrating the threshold value for the cloud determination algorithm and kt value for the solar irradiance calculation.
author2 Gooi Hoay Beng
author_facet Gooi Hoay Beng
Goh, Kuen Luen
format Theses and Dissertations
author Goh, Kuen Luen
author_sort Goh, Kuen Luen
title Solar irradiance prediction with ground-based sky images to solve solar intermittencies
title_short Solar irradiance prediction with ground-based sky images to solve solar intermittencies
title_full Solar irradiance prediction with ground-based sky images to solve solar intermittencies
title_fullStr Solar irradiance prediction with ground-based sky images to solve solar intermittencies
title_full_unstemmed Solar irradiance prediction with ground-based sky images to solve solar intermittencies
title_sort solar irradiance prediction with ground-based sky images to solve solar intermittencies
publishDate 2016
url http://hdl.handle.net/10356/68992
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