The impacts of US Fed interest rate liftoff on Southwest Asia stock markets, sovereign bond and currencies

In 2015, Federal Funds Futures (FFF) that represented market expectation on Federal Funds Rate (FFR) in future indicated market expected more gradual interest rate lift-off in future, which should boost the ASEAN financial market, yet it suffered a relatively big decline possibly due to surge in glo...

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Main Author: Ooi, Teik Khim
Other Authors: J Soedradjad Djiwandono
Format: Theses and Dissertations
Language:English
Published: 2017
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Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10356/69821
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-698212020-11-01T08:37:20Z The impacts of US Fed interest rate liftoff on Southwest Asia stock markets, sovereign bond and currencies Ooi, Teik Khim J Soedradjad Djiwandono S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies DRNTU::Social sciences::Political science In 2015, Federal Funds Futures (FFF) that represented market expectation on Federal Funds Rate (FFR) in future indicated market expected more gradual interest rate lift-off in future, which should boost the ASEAN financial market, yet it suffered a relatively big decline possibly due to surge in global risk as reflected in Volatility Index (VI X). This paper aims to examine the impact of US interest rate lift-off on the performance of ASEAN equities, currencies and sovereign bond during that period. The examination period ranged from FOMC meeting in 29-30 October 2014 when they ended the asset purchase program until 19 Feb 2016 when relevant data was collected for econometric analysis (hereafter 2015 ASEAN slump). Based on the capital push-pull factors framework, two models are developed to test the impact of US interest rate lift-off. First model use FFF as a proxy for market expectation on interest rate lift-off. While, the second model traces the announcement effect of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figure. Amid forward guidance, both FFF and NFP are good proxies for market expectation for interest rate lift-off. The regression results of both models conclude that i) interest rate lift-off affects A SEAN stock markets and sovereign bond, but it is inconclusive for ASEAN currencies. ii) VIX affects ASEAN stock markets and currencies, but it is inconclusive for ASEAN sovereign bond. Subsequently, an extension regression is done to confirm that VIX and FFF is negatively correlated. Based on the more reliable model I (using FFF), it implies the negative effect of spike in VIX dominated the positive effect from lower market expectation on interest rate lift-off, which led to decline in ASEAN financial market during 2015 A SEAN slump. Master of Science 2017-03-29T03:42:48Z 2017-03-29T03:42:48Z 2017 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10356/69821 en 56 p. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic DRNTU::Social sciences::Political science
spellingShingle DRNTU::Social sciences::Political science
Ooi, Teik Khim
The impacts of US Fed interest rate liftoff on Southwest Asia stock markets, sovereign bond and currencies
description In 2015, Federal Funds Futures (FFF) that represented market expectation on Federal Funds Rate (FFR) in future indicated market expected more gradual interest rate lift-off in future, which should boost the ASEAN financial market, yet it suffered a relatively big decline possibly due to surge in global risk as reflected in Volatility Index (VI X). This paper aims to examine the impact of US interest rate lift-off on the performance of ASEAN equities, currencies and sovereign bond during that period. The examination period ranged from FOMC meeting in 29-30 October 2014 when they ended the asset purchase program until 19 Feb 2016 when relevant data was collected for econometric analysis (hereafter 2015 ASEAN slump). Based on the capital push-pull factors framework, two models are developed to test the impact of US interest rate lift-off. First model use FFF as a proxy for market expectation on interest rate lift-off. While, the second model traces the announcement effect of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figure. Amid forward guidance, both FFF and NFP are good proxies for market expectation for interest rate lift-off. The regression results of both models conclude that i) interest rate lift-off affects A SEAN stock markets and sovereign bond, but it is inconclusive for ASEAN currencies. ii) VIX affects ASEAN stock markets and currencies, but it is inconclusive for ASEAN sovereign bond. Subsequently, an extension regression is done to confirm that VIX and FFF is negatively correlated. Based on the more reliable model I (using FFF), it implies the negative effect of spike in VIX dominated the positive effect from lower market expectation on interest rate lift-off, which led to decline in ASEAN financial market during 2015 A SEAN slump.
author2 J Soedradjad Djiwandono
author_facet J Soedradjad Djiwandono
Ooi, Teik Khim
format Theses and Dissertations
author Ooi, Teik Khim
author_sort Ooi, Teik Khim
title The impacts of US Fed interest rate liftoff on Southwest Asia stock markets, sovereign bond and currencies
title_short The impacts of US Fed interest rate liftoff on Southwest Asia stock markets, sovereign bond and currencies
title_full The impacts of US Fed interest rate liftoff on Southwest Asia stock markets, sovereign bond and currencies
title_fullStr The impacts of US Fed interest rate liftoff on Southwest Asia stock markets, sovereign bond and currencies
title_full_unstemmed The impacts of US Fed interest rate liftoff on Southwest Asia stock markets, sovereign bond and currencies
title_sort impacts of us fed interest rate liftoff on southwest asia stock markets, sovereign bond and currencies
publishDate 2017
url http://hdl.handle.net/10356/69821
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