When will the next shipping recovery arrive?

The dry bulk shipping market has been very weak the past few years due to a lack of a demand-surge induced growth or a supply-shortage induced growth. A recovery in the dry bulk market is when supply and demand gap narrows and market sentiments improves. Every day, there are many events occurring in...

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Main Author: Lim, Kuan Yuan
Other Authors: Kenneth Tan Siah-Ann
Format: Final Year Project
Language:English
Published: 2017
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10356/71226
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-712262023-03-03T17:06:05Z When will the next shipping recovery arrive? Lim, Kuan Yuan Kenneth Tan Siah-Ann School of Civil and Environmental Engineering DRNTU::Engineering::Maritime studies The dry bulk shipping market has been very weak the past few years due to a lack of a demand-surge induced growth or a supply-shortage induced growth. A recovery in the dry bulk market is when supply and demand gap narrows and market sentiments improves. Every day, there are many events occurring in the shipping world, but only certain few triggers would lead to an upturn. Studies had found out that past shipping cycles had similar repetitive events that impact supply and demand. Hence, this report aims to derive an estimated time as to when the market supply and demand narrows by examining past events and determine the triggers that leads to it. Using qualitative and quantitative analysis, triggers were identified from supply and demand indicators. On the supply side, interviews, surveys and research were collected to observe the live status of tonnage, financing, ship yards, and age profile of the fleet. On the demand side, the same methods were employed to observe China’s economic growth and development plans, and global demand preferences. Triggers that are identified are oil and gas price, vessel deliveries and demolition rates, banks’ sentiments, China’s government policies, and IMO conventions. These can be used to predict future recoveries. The results would tell if the next recovery is a demand-surge induced growth or a supply-shortage induced recovery based on the triggers identified. Projection of the next recovery is based on correlations with past events. The limitation was that certain peace-time assumptions and parameters had to be set to predict the result. Bachelor of Science (Maritime Studies) 2017-05-15T08:01:39Z 2017-05-15T08:01:39Z 2017 Final Year Project (FYP) http://hdl.handle.net/10356/71226 en Nanyang Technological University 95 p. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic DRNTU::Engineering::Maritime studies
spellingShingle DRNTU::Engineering::Maritime studies
Lim, Kuan Yuan
When will the next shipping recovery arrive?
description The dry bulk shipping market has been very weak the past few years due to a lack of a demand-surge induced growth or a supply-shortage induced growth. A recovery in the dry bulk market is when supply and demand gap narrows and market sentiments improves. Every day, there are many events occurring in the shipping world, but only certain few triggers would lead to an upturn. Studies had found out that past shipping cycles had similar repetitive events that impact supply and demand. Hence, this report aims to derive an estimated time as to when the market supply and demand narrows by examining past events and determine the triggers that leads to it. Using qualitative and quantitative analysis, triggers were identified from supply and demand indicators. On the supply side, interviews, surveys and research were collected to observe the live status of tonnage, financing, ship yards, and age profile of the fleet. On the demand side, the same methods were employed to observe China’s economic growth and development plans, and global demand preferences. Triggers that are identified are oil and gas price, vessel deliveries and demolition rates, banks’ sentiments, China’s government policies, and IMO conventions. These can be used to predict future recoveries. The results would tell if the next recovery is a demand-surge induced growth or a supply-shortage induced recovery based on the triggers identified. Projection of the next recovery is based on correlations with past events. The limitation was that certain peace-time assumptions and parameters had to be set to predict the result.
author2 Kenneth Tan Siah-Ann
author_facet Kenneth Tan Siah-Ann
Lim, Kuan Yuan
format Final Year Project
author Lim, Kuan Yuan
author_sort Lim, Kuan Yuan
title When will the next shipping recovery arrive?
title_short When will the next shipping recovery arrive?
title_full When will the next shipping recovery arrive?
title_fullStr When will the next shipping recovery arrive?
title_full_unstemmed When will the next shipping recovery arrive?
title_sort when will the next shipping recovery arrive?
publishDate 2017
url http://hdl.handle.net/10356/71226
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