Simulation on UAV-civil aviation aircraft collision prediction model

• Main Author: Koay, Lynette Jie Ting
• Other Authors: Low Kin Huat
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: DRNTU::Engineering
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10356/74440
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

The airspace has become increasingly congested with the ubiquitous presence of UAVs. Now, not only do pilots need to maintain a safe distance between other manned aircraft, they also have to be wary of UAVs within its flight path. Although there are regulations put in place to keep these UAVs out of prohibited airspace zones, it is possible that these UAVs may encroach into restricted areas such as within the aerodrome and pose a potential risk of collision to aircrafts and threaten their safety. The objective of this study is to investigate the probability of UAS-manned aircraft collision within 5km of an aerodrome with the use of Monte Carlo Simulation approach. The level of threat that the intruder UAS pose to manned aircraft was assessed based on trajectory prediction of the UAS using its initial reported incursion location and heading. Simulations were conducted for numerous UAS breaching scenarios with a fixed flight plan of a single aircraft under realistic flight conditions on the two runways in Singapore Changi Airport. Contour plots were constructed, using the gathered probability of collision obtained for each take off and landing operation. Results will then be utilized to develop a collision alerting logic to advise pilots to undertake avoidance manoeuvre (such as climb or go around) when the determined level of threat posed by intruder UAS exceeds the safety threshold.