Future of U.S. power : is China going to eclipse the United States? : two possible scenarios to 2040
This working paper discusses a few possible ways how U.S. power may evolve from 2010 to 2040. I begin with a description of this work’s jectives, and continue with the introduction of the mixed scenario method that will be used in this work. I will summarize the epochs of the U.S. power, such...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2011
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/79838 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/6521 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Institution: | Nanyang Technological University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | This working paper discusses a few possible ways how U.S. power may evolve from 2010 to 2040. I begin with a description of this work’s jectives, and continue with
the introduction of the mixed scenario method that will be used in this work. I will summarize the epochs of the U.S. power, such as establishing the nation, achieving
the world hegemony, attempts to build an Empire, struggling with rising multipolarity
and contemporary attempts to maintain the (declining) hegemony. Then I attempt to draw analogies from the knowledge of evolution of historical empires to the contemporary world’s political economy. Next, I will discuss the historical and
emerging power trajectories of China and its long-term abilities to challenge the
United States and achieve the world hegemony. Finally, I will provide two mixedmethod
scenarios, where the United States and China have totally different roles and powers.
Key words: United States, China, mixed scenario method, exploratory forecasting, power trajectories, clash, economic recession, multipolarity, hegemony, rise and fall
of an Empire, use of analogies from history to project futures. |
|---|