The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Background Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. Metho...

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Main Authors: Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento, Greenhalgh, David, Wilder-Smith, Annelies, Amaku, Marcos, Lopez, Luis Fernandez, Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra, Ximenes, Raphael, Struchiner, Claudio José, Massad, Eduardo
Other Authors: Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine)
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2016
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Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80523
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/40516
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-805232022-02-16T16:30:30Z The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Greenhalgh, David Wilder-Smith, Annelies Amaku, Marcos Lopez, Luis Fernandez Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Ximenes, Raphael Struchiner, Claudio José Massad, Eduardo Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) Dengue Mathematical models Risk assessment Olympic games Travel medicine Background Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. Methods A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. Results The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007. Conclusions If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals. Published version 2016-05-10T08:34:06Z 2019-12-06T13:51:26Z 2016-05-10T08:34:06Z 2019-12-06T13:51:26Z 2016 Journal Article Ximenes, R., Amaku, M., Lopez, L. F., Coutinho, F. A. B., Burattini, M. N., Greenhalgh, D., et al. (2016). The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMC Infectious Diseases, 16(186). 1471-2334 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80523 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/40516 10.1186/s12879-016-1517-z 27129407 en BMC Infectious Diseases © 2016 Ximenes et al. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated 9 p. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic Dengue
Mathematical models
Risk assessment
Olympic games
Travel medicine
spellingShingle Dengue
Mathematical models
Risk assessment
Olympic games
Travel medicine
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Greenhalgh, David
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Amaku, Marcos
Lopez, Luis Fernandez
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Ximenes, Raphael
Struchiner, Claudio José
Massad, Eduardo
The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
description Background Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. Methods A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. Results The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007. Conclusions If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.
author2 Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine)
author_facet Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine)
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Greenhalgh, David
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Amaku, Marcos
Lopez, Luis Fernandez
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Ximenes, Raphael
Struchiner, Claudio José
Massad, Eduardo
format Article
author Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Greenhalgh, David
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Amaku, Marcos
Lopez, Luis Fernandez
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Ximenes, Raphael
Struchiner, Claudio José
Massad, Eduardo
author_sort Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
title The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_short The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_full The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_fullStr The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_full_unstemmed The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_sort risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in rio de janeiro, brazil
publishDate 2016
url https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80523
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/40516
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