Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D...

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Main Authors:	Reed, Andra J., Mann, Michael E., Emanuel, Kerry A., Lin, Ning, Kemp, Andrew C., Donnelly, Jeffrey P., Horton, Benjamin P.
Other Authors:	Asian School of the Environment
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	2015
Subjects:	Relative sea level New Jersey Tropical cyclones Storm surge Flood height
Online Access:	https://hdl.handle.net/10356/81186 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/39164
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Institution:	Nanyang Technological University
Language:	English

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spelling	sg-ntu-dr.10356-811862022-02-16T16:28:47Z Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era Reed, Andra J. Mann, Michael E. Emanuel, Kerry A. Lin, Ning Kemp, Andrew C. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Horton, Benjamin P. Asian School of the Environment Earth Observatory of Singapore Relative sea level New Jersey Tropical cyclones Storm surge Flood height In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. Accepted Version 2015-12-18T06:34:26Z 2019-12-06T14:23:12Z 2015-12-18T06:34:26Z 2019-12-06T14:23:12Z 2015 Journal Article Reed, A. J., Mann, M. E., Emanuel, K. A., Lin, N., Horton, B. P., Kemp, A. C., et al. (2015). Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(41), 12610-12615. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/81186 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/39164 10.1073/pnas.1513127112 26417111 en Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America © 2015 The Author(s) (Published by National Academy of Sciences). This is the author created version of a work that has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, The Author(s) (Published by National Academy of Sciences). It incorporates referee’s comments but changes resulting from the publishing process, such as copyediting, structural formatting, may not be reflected in this document. The published version is available at: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1513127112]. 27 p. application/pdf
institution	Nanyang Technological University
building	NTU Library
continent	Asia
country	Singapore Singapore
content_provider	NTU Library
collection	DR-NTU
language	English
topic	Relative sea level New Jersey Tropical cyclones Storm surge Flood height
spellingShingle	Relative sea level New Jersey Tropical cyclones Storm surge Flood height Reed, Andra J. Mann, Michael E. Emanuel, Kerry A. Lin, Ning Kemp, Andrew C. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Horton, Benjamin P. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era
description	In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.
author2	Asian School of the Environment
author_facet	Asian School of the Environment Reed, Andra J. Mann, Michael E. Emanuel, Kerry A. Lin, Ning Kemp, Andrew C. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Horton, Benjamin P.
format	Article
author	Reed, Andra J. Mann, Michael E. Emanuel, Kerry A. Lin, Ning Kemp, Andrew C. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Horton, Benjamin P.
author_sort	Reed, Andra J.
title	Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era
title_short	Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era
title_full	Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era
title_fullStr	Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era
title_full_unstemmed	Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era
title_sort	increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to new york city during the anthropogenic era
publishDate	2015
url	https://hdl.handle.net/10356/81186 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/39164
_version_	1725985662851612672

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

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