Applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in Myanmar
One of the salient policy recommendations for conflict and genocide prevention is the use of early warning models. This NTS Insight investigates and applies two well-known models used for conflict and genocide risk assessments to test the impact of Myanmar's Border Guard Force (BGF) policy on t...
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sg-ntu-dr.10356-830572020-11-01T08:47:39Z Applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in Myanmar Cook, Alistair David Blair Kaur, Manpavan Gong, Lina S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Conflict Myanmar One of the salient policy recommendations for conflict and genocide prevention is the use of early warning models. This NTS Insight investigates and applies two well-known models used for conflict and genocide risk assessments to test the impact of Myanmar's Border Guard Force (BGF) policy on the ongoing internal ethnic conflict. The two models used are the Ethnic Rebellion Model (ERM) (Harff and Gurr, 1998) and the Risk Assessment Model (RAM) for Genocides or Politicides (Harff, 2003). The application of these models shows that the internal ethnic conflict is likely to continue and there exist trigger or accelerating factors for genocide to occur. While there is utility in applying these models, this NTS Insight also identifies some gaps in and challenges with these models, which need to be addressed if they are to become effective conflict and genocide prevention assessments. 2018-07-09T05:07:32Z 2019-12-06T15:11:00Z 2018-07-09T05:07:32Z 2019-12-06T15:11:00Z 2011 Working Paper Cook, A. D. B., Gong, L., & Kaur, M. (2011). Applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in Myanmar. (RSIS NTS Insight March 2011). Singapore: Nanyang Technological University. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/83057 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/45064 en Nanyang Technological University 14 p. application/pdf |
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Conflict Myanmar Cook, Alistair David Blair Kaur, Manpavan Gong, Lina Applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in Myanmar |
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One of the salient policy recommendations for conflict and genocide prevention is the use of early warning models. This NTS Insight investigates and applies two well-known models used for conflict and genocide risk assessments to test the impact of Myanmar's Border Guard Force (BGF) policy on the ongoing internal ethnic conflict. The two models used are the Ethnic Rebellion Model (ERM)
(Harff and Gurr, 1998) and the Risk Assessment Model (RAM) for Genocides or Politicides (Harff, 2003). The application of these models shows that the internal ethnic conflict is likely to continue and there exist trigger or accelerating factors for genocide to occur. While there is utility in applying these models, this NTS Insight also identifies some gaps in and challenges with these models, which
need to be addressed if they are to become effective conflict and genocide prevention assessments. |
author2 |
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies |
author_facet |
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Cook, Alistair David Blair Kaur, Manpavan Gong, Lina |
format |
Working Paper |
author |
Cook, Alistair David Blair Kaur, Manpavan Gong, Lina |
author_sort |
Cook, Alistair David Blair |
title |
Applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in Myanmar |
title_short |
Applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in Myanmar |
title_full |
Applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in Myanmar |
title_fullStr |
Applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in Myanmar |
title_full_unstemmed |
Applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in Myanmar |
title_sort |
applying the ethnic rebellion model and risk assessment model to conflict in myanmar |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10356/83057 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/45064 |
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1688665547698339840 |