Stochastic modelling of the hybrid survival curve

• Main Authors: Tan, Chong It, Li, Jackie, Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, Balasooriya, Uditha
• Other Authors: Nanyang Business School
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: 2016
• Subjects: Period survival curves; Cohort survival curves
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/84595; http://hdl.handle.net/10220/41883
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

In this paper, building upon the idea of cross-sectional survival probabilities developed by Brouard (Espaces Popul Soc 2(14–15):157–168, 1986), we propose using stochastic models to study the evolution of a new type of survival curves called hybrid survival curve. We find that the three-factor survival model provides a better model fitting than the two-factor survival model. Furthermore, the three time-varying parameters are highly interpretable and their respective trends can be used as an indicator for the rectangularisation of survival curve. On top of that, we demonstrate how the time-varying parameters can be extrapolated into the future to obtain projected hybrid survival curves.