Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments

• Main Author: Chan, Chung-Han
• Other Authors: Earth Observatory of Singapore
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes; Earthquake Forecasting Models; Time-dependent Factors
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/84618; http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50423
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that are applied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To demonstrate the importance of depth component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates three-dimensional grids, is compared with an approach with two-dimensional cells. Through application to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto, it is shown that the approaches with three-dimensional grids always demonstrate a better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance of depth dependency for forecasting, especially for applications to a subduction environment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. In addition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors for forecasting models and concludes that time dependency only becomes crucial during the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows a large earthquake.