Bayesian Network modeling and expert elicitation for probabilistic eruption forecasting : pilot study for Whakaari/White Island, New Zealand

• Main Authors: Christophersen, Annemarie, Deligne, Natalia I., Hanea, Anca M., Chardot, Lauriane, Fournier, Nicolas, Aspinall, Willy P.
• Other Authors: Earth Observatory of Singapore
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: Bayesian Networks; Eruption Forecasting; Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/85752; http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50442
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that provide a robust and flexible framework for understanding complex systems. Limited case studies have demonstrated the potential of BNs in modeling multiple data streams for eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard assessment. Neverthele...