Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data
Tidal marshes rank among Earth’s vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes’ ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Grea...
Saved in:
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/88399 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/45758 |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Institution: | Nanyang Technological University |
Language: | English |
id |
sg-ntu-dr.10356-88399 |
---|---|
record_format |
dspace |
spelling |
sg-ntu-dr.10356-883992023-10-18T05:18:08Z Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data Horton, Benjamin Peter Shennan, Ian Bradley, Sarah L. Cahill, Niamh Kirwan, Matthew Kopp, Robert E. Shaw, Timothy Adam Asian School of the Environment Earth Observatory of Singapore Sea Level Rise DRNTU::Science::Geology Holocene Tidal marshes rank among Earth’s vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes’ ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Great Britain. These reconstructions include both transgressive (tidal marsh retreat) and regressive (tidal marsh expansion) contacts. The probability of a marsh retreat was conditional upon Holocene rates of RSLR, which varied between −7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr. Holocene records indicate that marshes are nine times more likely to retreat than expand when RSLR rates are ≥7.1 mm/yr. Coupling estimated probabilities of marsh retreat with projections of future RSLR suggests a major risk of tidal marsh loss in the twenty-first century. All of Great Britain has a >80% probability of a marsh retreat under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 by 2100, with areas of southern and eastern England achieving this probability by 2040. NRF (Natl Research Foundation, S’pore) MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore) Published version 2018-08-30T05:02:08Z 2019-12-06T17:02:26Z 2018-08-30T05:02:08Z 2019-12-06T17:02:26Z 2018 Journal Article Horton, B. P., Shennan, I., Bradley, S. L., Cahill, N., Kirwan, M., Kopp, R. E., & Shaw, T. A. (2018). Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data. Nature Communications, 9, 2687-. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/88399 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/45758 10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0 en Nature Communications © 2018 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/. 7 p. application/pdf |
institution |
Nanyang Technological University |
building |
NTU Library |
continent |
Asia |
country |
Singapore Singapore |
content_provider |
NTU Library |
collection |
DR-NTU |
language |
English |
topic |
Sea Level Rise DRNTU::Science::Geology Holocene |
spellingShingle |
Sea Level Rise DRNTU::Science::Geology Holocene Horton, Benjamin Peter Shennan, Ian Bradley, Sarah L. Cahill, Niamh Kirwan, Matthew Kopp, Robert E. Shaw, Timothy Adam Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data |
description |
Tidal marshes rank among Earth’s vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes’ ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Great Britain. These reconstructions include both transgressive (tidal marsh retreat) and regressive (tidal marsh expansion) contacts. The probability of a marsh retreat was conditional upon Holocene rates of RSLR, which varied between −7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr. Holocene records indicate that marshes are nine times more likely to retreat than expand when RSLR rates are ≥7.1 mm/yr. Coupling estimated probabilities of marsh retreat with projections of future RSLR suggests a major risk of tidal marsh loss in the twenty-first century. All of Great Britain has a >80% probability of a marsh retreat under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 by 2100, with areas of southern and eastern England achieving this probability by 2040. |
author2 |
Asian School of the Environment |
author_facet |
Asian School of the Environment Horton, Benjamin Peter Shennan, Ian Bradley, Sarah L. Cahill, Niamh Kirwan, Matthew Kopp, Robert E. Shaw, Timothy Adam |
format |
Article |
author |
Horton, Benjamin Peter Shennan, Ian Bradley, Sarah L. Cahill, Niamh Kirwan, Matthew Kopp, Robert E. Shaw, Timothy Adam |
author_sort |
Horton, Benjamin Peter |
title |
Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data |
title_short |
Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data |
title_full |
Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data |
title_fullStr |
Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data |
title_sort |
predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using holocene relative sea-level data |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10356/88399 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/45758 |
_version_ |
1781793922999123968 |