Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management

Water resources planning and management are plagued with various uncertainties in that any chosen management alternative always has the possibility to be inferior to other competing alternatives. To facilitate risk-based decision making, the minimax expected opportunity loss (EOL) rule is applied fo...

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Main Authors: Su, Hsin-Ting, Tung, Yeou-Koung
Other Authors: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2015
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10356/93729
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/38359
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-937292020-03-07T11:43:29Z Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management Su, Hsin-Ting Tung, Yeou-Koung School of Civil and Environmental Engineering DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering::Water resources Water resources planning and management are plagued with various uncertainties in that any chosen management alternative always has the possibility to be inferior to other competing alternatives. To facilitate risk-based decision making, the minimax expected opportunity loss (EOL) rule is applied for alternative selection. Two existing risk measures as well as EOL are compared and their implications in risk-based decision making are examined. It is shown that EOL can reflect more accurately the relative merit of two competing alternatives without suffering the pessimism and the counter-intuition of the other two risk measures considered herein. The minimax EOL rule is demonstrated through an application to a river basin management decision for improving the navigation. The results show that the correlation between outcomes of competing alternatives and decision maker’s acceptable risk are important in decision making under uncertainty. Accepted version 2015-07-22T09:17:12Z 2019-12-06T18:44:25Z 2015-07-22T09:17:12Z 2019-12-06T18:44:25Z 2014 2014 Journal Article Su, H. T., & Tung, Y. K. (2014). Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management. Water Resources Management, 28(12), 3921-3935. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/93729 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/38359 10.1007/s11269-014-0718-8 en Water resources management © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. This is the author created version of a work that has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by Water Resources Management, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. It incorporates referee’s comments but changes resulting from the publishing process, such as copyediting, structural formatting, may not be reflected in this document. The published version is available at: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0718-8]. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
country Singapore
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering::Water resources
spellingShingle DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering::Water resources
Su, Hsin-Ting
Tung, Yeou-Koung
Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management
description Water resources planning and management are plagued with various uncertainties in that any chosen management alternative always has the possibility to be inferior to other competing alternatives. To facilitate risk-based decision making, the minimax expected opportunity loss (EOL) rule is applied for alternative selection. Two existing risk measures as well as EOL are compared and their implications in risk-based decision making are examined. It is shown that EOL can reflect more accurately the relative merit of two competing alternatives without suffering the pessimism and the counter-intuition of the other two risk measures considered herein. The minimax EOL rule is demonstrated through an application to a river basin management decision for improving the navigation. The results show that the correlation between outcomes of competing alternatives and decision maker’s acceptable risk are important in decision making under uncertainty.
author2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
author_facet School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Su, Hsin-Ting
Tung, Yeou-Koung
format Article
author Su, Hsin-Ting
Tung, Yeou-Koung
author_sort Su, Hsin-Ting
title Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management
title_short Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management
title_full Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management
title_fullStr Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management
title_full_unstemmed Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management
title_sort comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management
publishDate 2015
url https://hdl.handle.net/10356/93729
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/38359
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