Can Lagrangian extrapolation of radar fields be used for precipitation nowcasting over complex Alpine orography?
In this study, a Lagrangian radar echo extrapolation scheme (MAPLE) was tested for use in very short-term forecasting of precipitation over a complex orographic region. The high-resolution forecasts from MAPLE for lead times of 5 min-5 h are evaluated against the radar observations for 20 summer rai...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/94062 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/8181 |
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| Institution: | Nanyang Technological University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | In this study, a Lagrangian radar echo extrapolation scheme (MAPLE) was tested for use in very short-term forecasting of precipitation over a complex orographic region. The high-resolution forecasts from MAPLE for lead times of 5 min-5 h are evaluated against the radar observations for 20 summer rainfall events by employing a series of categorical, continuous, and neighborhood evaluation techniques. The verification results are then compared with those from Eulerian persistence and high-resolution numerical weather prediction model [the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling model (COSMO2)] forecasts. The forecasts from the MAPLE model clearly outperformed Eulerian persistence forecasts for all the lead times, and had better skill compared to COSMO2 up to lead time of 3 h on average. The results also showed that the predictability achieved from the MAPLE model depends on the spatial structure of the precipitation patterns. This study is a first implementation of the MAPLE model over a complex Alpine region. In addition to comprehensive evaluation of precipitation forecast products, some open questions related to the nowcasting of rainfall over a complex terrain are discussed. |
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