Prospect theory, analyst forecast, and stock returns

This paper documents how prospect theory can be used to explain stock returns and analysts' forecast behavior. Positive earnings surprises are associated with increases in abnormal returns but negative earnings surprises have only a limited negative impact on returns. We find that analysts disp...

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Main Authors: DING, David K., Charoenwong, Charlie, Seetoh, Raymond
Format: text
Language:English
Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2004
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Online Access:https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/1158
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/2157/viewcontent/SSRN_id566961__1_.pdf
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Institution: Singapore Management University
Language: English
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spelling sg-smu-ink.lkcsb_research-21572022-01-03T07:25:39Z Prospect theory, analyst forecast, and stock returns DING, David K. Charoenwong, Charlie Seetoh, Raymond This paper documents how prospect theory can be used to explain stock returns and analysts' forecast behavior. Positive earnings surprises are associated with increases in abnormal returns but negative earnings surprises have only a limited negative impact on returns. We find that analysts display asymmetric behavior towards positive and negative earnings growth. Analysts' forecasts are found to be accurate during periods of positive earnings growth, but overly optimistic during periods of negative earnings growth. Our findings have implications for the structuring of investment products, as well as the role of market timing in their introduction. 2004-10-01T07:00:00Z text application/pdf https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/1158 info:doi/10.1016/j.mulfin.2004.03.005 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/2157/viewcontent/SSRN_id566961__1_.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University Behavioral finance prospect theory analyst forecasts earnings growth earnings surprise Business Corporate Finance Finance and Financial Management
institution Singapore Management University
building SMU Libraries
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider SMU Libraries
collection InK@SMU
language English
topic Behavioral finance
prospect theory
analyst forecasts
earnings growth
earnings surprise
Business
Corporate Finance
Finance and Financial Management
spellingShingle Behavioral finance
prospect theory
analyst forecasts
earnings growth
earnings surprise
Business
Corporate Finance
Finance and Financial Management
DING, David K.
Charoenwong, Charlie
Seetoh, Raymond
Prospect theory, analyst forecast, and stock returns
description This paper documents how prospect theory can be used to explain stock returns and analysts' forecast behavior. Positive earnings surprises are associated with increases in abnormal returns but negative earnings surprises have only a limited negative impact on returns. We find that analysts display asymmetric behavior towards positive and negative earnings growth. Analysts' forecasts are found to be accurate during periods of positive earnings growth, but overly optimistic during periods of negative earnings growth. Our findings have implications for the structuring of investment products, as well as the role of market timing in their introduction.
format text
author DING, David K.
Charoenwong, Charlie
Seetoh, Raymond
author_facet DING, David K.
Charoenwong, Charlie
Seetoh, Raymond
author_sort DING, David K.
title Prospect theory, analyst forecast, and stock returns
title_short Prospect theory, analyst forecast, and stock returns
title_full Prospect theory, analyst forecast, and stock returns
title_fullStr Prospect theory, analyst forecast, and stock returns
title_full_unstemmed Prospect theory, analyst forecast, and stock returns
title_sort prospect theory, analyst forecast, and stock returns
publisher Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
publishDate 2004
url https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/1158
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/2157/viewcontent/SSRN_id566961__1_.pdf
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