Return Predictability and Trends in Earnings Surprises
We document that trends in firm-level quarterly earnings surprises predict returns. Trends require consistency between the sign of a firm’s most recent earnings surprise and its prior earnings surprises. The return predictability of trends is not induced by the relatively large earnings surprises th...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
2006
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/1566 |
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| Institution: | Singapore Management University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | We document that trends in firm-level quarterly earnings surprises predict returns. Trends require consistency between the sign of a firm’s most recent earnings surprise and its prior earnings surprises. The return predictability of trends is not induced by the relatively large earnings surprises that define post-earnings announcement drift. Instead, trends in prior earnings surprises explain more than half of post-earnings announcement drift’s risk-adjusted return. Our evidence indicates that investors underreact to trends and therefore provides partial support for Rabin (2002)’s theory that investor expectations are influenced by the law of small numbers. |
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