The Disparity between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth
We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far...
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sg-smu-ink.lkcsb_research-28932018-07-09T07:36:10Z The Disparity between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth DA, Zhi WARACHKA, Mitchell Craig We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns, respectively. Despite the importance of conditioning on short-term forecasted earnings growth, these returns are not driven by earnings momentum. Instead, consistent with investors having limited attention, predictable revisions in long-term analyst forecasts appear to induce return predictability. 2008-07-01T07:00:00Z text application/pdf https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/1894 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/2893/viewcontent/WarachkaM2008Disparity.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University Analyst Forecasts Return Predictability Finance and Financial Management Portfolio and Security Analysis |
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Analyst Forecasts Return Predictability Finance and Financial Management Portfolio and Security Analysis DA, Zhi WARACHKA, Mitchell Craig The Disparity between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth |
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We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns, respectively. Despite the importance of conditioning on short-term forecasted earnings growth, these returns are not driven by earnings momentum. Instead, consistent with investors having limited attention, predictable revisions in long-term analyst forecasts appear to induce return predictability. |
format |
text |
author |
DA, Zhi WARACHKA, Mitchell Craig |
author_facet |
DA, Zhi WARACHKA, Mitchell Craig |
author_sort |
DA, Zhi |
title |
The Disparity between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth |
title_short |
The Disparity between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth |
title_full |
The Disparity between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth |
title_fullStr |
The Disparity between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Disparity between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth |
title_sort |
disparity between long-term and short-term forecasted earnings growth |
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Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University |
publishDate |
2008 |
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https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/1894 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/2893/viewcontent/WarachkaM2008Disparity.pdf |
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