The Disparity between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth
We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far...
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| Format: | text |
| Language: | English |
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Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
2010
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| Online Access: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/1895 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1336821 |
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| Institution: | Singapore Management University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns, respectively. Despite the importance of conditioning on short-term forecasted earnings growth, these returns are not driven by earnings momentum. Instead, consistent with investors having limited attention, predictable revisions in long-term analyst forecasts appear to induce return predictability. |
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