Estimating Credit Risk Premia

• Main Author: Lim, Kian Guan
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2005
• Subjects: Finance and Financial Management; Portfolio and Security Analysis
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/2785
• Institution: Singapore Management University

This paper investigates the nature of the credit risk premium adjustments in the Jarrow-Lando-Turnbull model of credit risk spreads. The adjustments relate the equivalent martingale measures to the empirical measures of unconditional transition probabilities. The author provides a modified version of the risk adjustment that allows a linear partition of the credit spread into an unconditional default component, a recovery component, and the risk premium adjustment. The risk adjustments are related to conditional default risk, illiquidity risk, and other factors not related to recovery effects. The log-transform of these risk adjustments can be specified as linear regressions on a set of macroeconomic variables. Some new insights are gained pertaining to these conditional risks such as a typical upward sloping term structure and sensitivity to short-term treasury rates and increasing forward rates. The conditional risks appear to be insensitive to market returns.