The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development
A possible way to improve the accuracy of forecasts is to estimate (and subsequently remove) any systematic bias by reference to the bias found in similar forecasts in the past. This paper discusses the applicability to industrial R & D of a method proposed by Summers for debiasing estimates of...
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Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
1971
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| 在線閱讀: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/3928 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9310.1971.tb00069.x |
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sg-smu-ink.lkcsb_research-49272016-04-03T09:38:20Z The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development THOMAS, Howard A possible way to improve the accuracy of forecasts is to estimate (and subsequently remove) any systematic bias by reference to the bias found in similar forecasts in the past. This paper discusses the applicability to industrial R & D of a method proposed by Summers for debiasing estimates of the costs of military projects by means of a regression equation derived from past experience, and gives the results of applying a similar method to estimates of costs, sales, product prices, and return factors for ten industrial development projects. 1971-06-01T07:00:00Z text https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/3928 info:doi/10.1111/j.1467-9310.1971.tb00069.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9310.1971.tb00069.x Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University Business Strategic Management Policy Technology and Innovation |
| institution |
Singapore Management University |
| building |
SMU Libraries |
| continent |
Asia |
| country |
Singapore Singapore |
| content_provider |
SMU Libraries |
| collection |
InK@SMU |
| language |
English |
| topic |
Business Strategic Management Policy Technology and Innovation |
| spellingShingle |
Business Strategic Management Policy Technology and Innovation THOMAS, Howard The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development |
| description |
A possible way to improve the accuracy of forecasts is to estimate (and subsequently remove) any systematic bias by reference to the bias found in similar forecasts in the past. This paper discusses the applicability to industrial R & D of a method proposed by Summers for debiasing estimates of the costs of military projects by means of a regression equation derived from past experience, and gives the results of applying a similar method to estimates of costs, sales, product prices, and return factors for ten industrial development projects. |
| format |
text |
| author |
THOMAS, Howard |
| author_facet |
THOMAS, Howard |
| author_sort |
THOMAS, Howard |
| title |
The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development |
| title_short |
The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development |
| title_full |
The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development |
| title_fullStr |
The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development |
| title_sort |
debiasing of forecasts in research and development |
| publisher |
Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University |
| publishDate |
1971 |
| url |
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/3928 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9310.1971.tb00069.x |
| _version_ |
1770571978495754240 |