A market-augmented model for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts

Brent crude oil futures contracts are traded on both the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Through a mutual offset system between SIMEX and IPE, Brent crude oil futures contracts can be traded up to nineteen hours each day. The inter-re...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: SEQUEIRA, J. M., McALEER, Michael
Format: text
Language:English
Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2000
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/5076
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Institution: Singapore Management University
Language: English
id sg-smu-ink.lkcsb_research-6075
record_format dspace
spelling sg-smu-ink.lkcsb_research-60752017-01-26T06:54:06Z A market-augmented model for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts SEQUEIRA, J. M., McALEER, Michael Brent crude oil futures contracts are traded on both the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Through a mutual offset system between SIMEX and IPE, Brent crude oil futures contracts can be traded up to nineteen hours each day. The inter-relationship between the two futures contracts, the spot price of Brent crude oil and the riskfree interest rate, suggest the existence of cointegration among SIMEX Brent crude oil futures prices, lagged IPE Brent crude oil futures prices, Brent spot prices and the London Inter-bank Offer Rate (LIBOR). Error-correction representations of two standard futures pricing models, namely the unbiased expectations and cost-of-carry hypotheses, are formulated for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts. These formulations are augmented by including the lagged IPE futures price in the mispricing error. The resulting Augmented Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis (AUEH) and the Augmented Cost-of-Carry (ACOC) models are estimated and tested against each other, and also against the standard unbiased expectations and cost-of-carry models, using nested and non-nested testing procedures. Forecasting comparisons are also made among the various models and the autoregressive integrated moving average models fitted to SIMEX Brent crude oil futures prices. Results from the nonnested tests and the forecasting criteria show clearly that the augmented models outperform their standard (non-augmented) counterparts. 2000-10-07T07:00:00Z text https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/5076 info:doi/10.1080/096031000416424 Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University Finance and Financial Management
institution Singapore Management University
building SMU Libraries
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider SMU Libraries
collection InK@SMU
language English
topic Finance and Financial Management
spellingShingle Finance and Financial Management
SEQUEIRA, J. M.,
McALEER, Michael
A market-augmented model for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts
description Brent crude oil futures contracts are traded on both the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Through a mutual offset system between SIMEX and IPE, Brent crude oil futures contracts can be traded up to nineteen hours each day. The inter-relationship between the two futures contracts, the spot price of Brent crude oil and the riskfree interest rate, suggest the existence of cointegration among SIMEX Brent crude oil futures prices, lagged IPE Brent crude oil futures prices, Brent spot prices and the London Inter-bank Offer Rate (LIBOR). Error-correction representations of two standard futures pricing models, namely the unbiased expectations and cost-of-carry hypotheses, are formulated for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts. These formulations are augmented by including the lagged IPE futures price in the mispricing error. The resulting Augmented Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis (AUEH) and the Augmented Cost-of-Carry (ACOC) models are estimated and tested against each other, and also against the standard unbiased expectations and cost-of-carry models, using nested and non-nested testing procedures. Forecasting comparisons are also made among the various models and the autoregressive integrated moving average models fitted to SIMEX Brent crude oil futures prices. Results from the nonnested tests and the forecasting criteria show clearly that the augmented models outperform their standard (non-augmented) counterparts.
format text
author SEQUEIRA, J. M.,
McALEER, Michael
author_facet SEQUEIRA, J. M.,
McALEER, Michael
author_sort SEQUEIRA, J. M.,
title A market-augmented model for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts
title_short A market-augmented model for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts
title_full A market-augmented model for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts
title_fullStr A market-augmented model for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts
title_full_unstemmed A market-augmented model for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts
title_sort market-augmented model for simex brent crude oil futures contracts
publisher Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
publishDate 2000
url https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/5076
_version_ 1770573176636440576