Robust measures of earnings surprises
Event studies of market efficiency measure an earnings surprise with the consensuserror (CE), defined as earnings minus the average of professional forecasts. Even if asubset of forecasts can be biased, the ideal but difficult to estimate parameter-dependentalternative to CE is a nonlinear filter of...
محفوظ في:
| المؤلفون الرئيسيون: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| التنسيق: | text |
| اللغة: | English |
| منشور في: |
Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
2019
|
| الموضوعات: | |
| الوصول للمادة أونلاين: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/5406 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/6405/viewcontent/SSRN_id2473366.pdf |
| الوسوم: |
إضافة وسم
لا توجد وسوم, كن أول من يضع وسما على هذه التسجيلة!
|
| الملخص: | Event studies of market efficiency measure an earnings surprise with the consensuserror (CE), defined as earnings minus the average of professional forecasts. Even if asubset of forecasts can be biased, the ideal but difficult to estimate parameter-dependentalternative to CE is a nonlinear filter of individual errors that adjusts for bias. We showthat CE is a poor parameter-free approximation for this ideal measure. The fractionof misses on the same side (FOM), by discarding the magnitude of misses, offers a farbetterapproximation. FOM performs particularly well against CE in predicting thereturns of US stocks, where bias is potentially large, than that of international stocks. |
|---|