When and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning

The present research sought to examine the impact of narcissism, prediction accuracy, and should counterfactual thinking—which includes thoughts such as “I should have done something different”—on hindsight bias (the tendency to exaggerate in hindsight what one knew in foresight) and perceived learn...

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Main Authors: HOWES, Satoris S., KAUSEL, Edgar E., JACKSON, Alexander T., REB, Jochen
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Language:English
Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2020
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Online Access:https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/6577
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/7576/viewcontent/pre_pub_version.pdf
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spelling sg-smu-ink.lkcsb_research-75762021-01-26T05:58:24Z When and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning HOWES, Satoris S. KAUSEL, Edgar E. JACKSON, Alexander T. REB, Jochen The present research sought to examine the impact of narcissism, prediction accuracy, and should counterfactual thinking—which includes thoughts such as “I should have done something different”—on hindsight bias (the tendency to exaggerate in hindsight what one knew in foresight) and perceived learning. To test these effects, we conducted four studies (total n = 727). First, in Study 1 we examined a moderated mediation model, in which should counterfactual thinking mediates the relation between narcissism and hindsight bias, and this mediation is moderated by prediction accuracy such that the relationship is negative when predictions are accurate and positive when predictions are inaccurate after accurate predictions. Second, in Study 2 we examined a moderated sequential mediation model, in which the relation between narcissism and perceived learning is sequentially mediated through should counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias, and importantly, this sequential mediation is moderated by prediction accuracy. In Study 3 we ruled out could counterfactual thinking as an alternative explanation for the relationship between narcissism and hindsight bias. Finally, by manipulating should counterfactual thinking in Study 4, our findings suggest that this type of thinking has a causal effect on hindsight bias. We discuss why exhibiting some hindsight bias can be positive after failure. We also discuss implications for eliciting should counterfactual thinking. Our results help explain why narcissists may fail to learn from their experiences. 2020-11-01T07:00:00Z text application/pdf https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/6577 info:doi/10.1177/0149206320929421 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/7576/viewcontent/pre_pub_version.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University decision making hindsight bias learning narcissism prediction accuracy should counterfactual thinking Applied Behavior Analysis Human Resources Management Organizational Behavior and Theory
institution Singapore Management University
building SMU Libraries
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider SMU Libraries
collection InK@SMU
language English
topic decision making
hindsight bias
learning
narcissism
prediction accuracy
should counterfactual thinking
Applied Behavior Analysis
Human Resources Management
Organizational Behavior and Theory
spellingShingle decision making
hindsight bias
learning
narcissism
prediction accuracy
should counterfactual thinking
Applied Behavior Analysis
Human Resources Management
Organizational Behavior and Theory
HOWES, Satoris S.
KAUSEL, Edgar E.
JACKSON, Alexander T.
REB, Jochen
When and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning
description The present research sought to examine the impact of narcissism, prediction accuracy, and should counterfactual thinking—which includes thoughts such as “I should have done something different”—on hindsight bias (the tendency to exaggerate in hindsight what one knew in foresight) and perceived learning. To test these effects, we conducted four studies (total n = 727). First, in Study 1 we examined a moderated mediation model, in which should counterfactual thinking mediates the relation between narcissism and hindsight bias, and this mediation is moderated by prediction accuracy such that the relationship is negative when predictions are accurate and positive when predictions are inaccurate after accurate predictions. Second, in Study 2 we examined a moderated sequential mediation model, in which the relation between narcissism and perceived learning is sequentially mediated through should counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias, and importantly, this sequential mediation is moderated by prediction accuracy. In Study 3 we ruled out could counterfactual thinking as an alternative explanation for the relationship between narcissism and hindsight bias. Finally, by manipulating should counterfactual thinking in Study 4, our findings suggest that this type of thinking has a causal effect on hindsight bias. We discuss why exhibiting some hindsight bias can be positive after failure. We also discuss implications for eliciting should counterfactual thinking. Our results help explain why narcissists may fail to learn from their experiences.
format text
author HOWES, Satoris S.
KAUSEL, Edgar E.
JACKSON, Alexander T.
REB, Jochen
author_facet HOWES, Satoris S.
KAUSEL, Edgar E.
JACKSON, Alexander T.
REB, Jochen
author_sort HOWES, Satoris S.
title When and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning
title_short When and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning
title_full When and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning
title_fullStr When and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning
title_full_unstemmed When and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning
title_sort when and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning
publisher Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
publishDate 2020
url https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/6577
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/7576/viewcontent/pre_pub_version.pdf
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