Cross-cryptocurrency return predictability
Using the minute-frequency data on Binance, we find strong evidence of cross-cryptocurrency return predictability. The lagged returns of other cryptocurrencies serve as significant predictors of focal cryptocurrencies up to ten minutes, in line with slow information diffusion. The results are robust...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/6901 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/7900/viewcontent/SSRN_id3974583.pdf |
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| Institution: | Singapore Management University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | Using the minute-frequency data on Binance, we find strong evidence of cross-cryptocurrency return predictability. The lagged returns of other cryptocurrencies serve as significant predictors of focal cryptocurrencies up to ten minutes, in line with slow information diffusion. The results are robust across various methods, including the adaptive LASSO and principal component analysis. Furthermore, a long-short portfolio formed on the past returns of cryptocurrencies can generate a daily return of 2.16% out-of-sample after accounting for transaction costs, indicating sizable economic value of cross-cryptocurrency return predictability. |
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