Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets
Forecasting seems to be a ubiquitous endeavor in human societies. In this paper, information markets are introduced as a promising mechanism for predicting uncertain outcomes. Information markets are markets that are specially designed for aggregating information and making predictions on future eve...
Saved in:
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
2006
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/sis_research/1789 http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S179300570600052X |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Institution: | Singapore Management University |
Language: | English |
id |
sg-smu-ink.sis_research-2788 |
---|---|
record_format |
dspace |
spelling |
sg-smu-ink.sis_research-27882013-03-15T10:12:03Z Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets CHEN, Yiling CHU, Chao-Hsien Mullen, Tracy Forecasting seems to be a ubiquitous endeavor in human societies. In this paper, information markets are introduced as a promising mechanism for predicting uncertain outcomes. Information markets are markets that are specially designed for aggregating information and making predictions on future events. A generic model of information markets is proposed. We derive some fundamental properties on when information markets can converge to the direct communications equilibrium, which aggregates all information across traders and is the best possible prediction for the event under consideration. Information markets, if properly designed, have substantial potential to facilitate organizations in making better informed decisions. 2006-01-01T08:00:00Z text https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/sis_research/1789 info:doi/10.1142/S179300570600052X http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S179300570600052X Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University Information market prediction trader behavior information aggregation Computer Sciences Management Information Systems |
institution |
Singapore Management University |
building |
SMU Libraries |
continent |
Asia |
country |
Singapore Singapore |
content_provider |
SMU Libraries |
collection |
InK@SMU |
language |
English |
topic |
Information market prediction trader behavior information aggregation Computer Sciences Management Information Systems |
spellingShingle |
Information market prediction trader behavior information aggregation Computer Sciences Management Information Systems CHEN, Yiling CHU, Chao-Hsien Mullen, Tracy Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets |
description |
Forecasting seems to be a ubiquitous endeavor in human societies. In this paper, information markets are introduced as a promising mechanism for predicting uncertain outcomes. Information markets are markets that are specially designed for aggregating information and making predictions on future events. A generic model of information markets is proposed. We derive some fundamental properties on when information markets can converge to the direct communications equilibrium, which aggregates all information across traders and is the best possible prediction for the event under consideration. Information markets, if properly designed, have substantial potential to facilitate organizations in making better informed decisions. |
format |
text |
author |
CHEN, Yiling CHU, Chao-Hsien Mullen, Tracy |
author_facet |
CHEN, Yiling CHU, Chao-Hsien Mullen, Tracy |
author_sort |
CHEN, Yiling |
title |
Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets |
title_short |
Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets |
title_full |
Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets |
title_fullStr |
Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets |
title_sort |
predicting uncertain outcomes using information markets |
publisher |
Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/sis_research/1789 http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S179300570600052X |
_version_ |
1770571499104632832 |