US Presidential election 2012 prediction using census corrected Twitter model

• Main Authors: CHOY, Junyu, CHEONG, Michelle L. F., MA, Nang Laik, KOO, Ping Shung
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2012
• Subjects: Social Influence and Political Communication; Social Media
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/sis_research/4319; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/sis_research/article/5322/viewcontent/US_Presidential_election_2012_prediction_using_census_corrected_Twitter_model.pdf
• Institution: Singapore Management University

US Presidential Election 2012 has been a very tight race between the two key candidates. Therewere intense battle between the two key candidates. The election reflects the sentiment of theelectorate towards the achievements of the incumbent President Obama. The campaign lastedseveral months and the effects can be felt in the internet and twitter. The presidential debatesinjected new vigor in the challenger's campaign and successfully captured the electorate of severalstates posing a threat to the incumbent's position. Much of the sentiment in the election has beencaptured in the online discussions. In this paper, we will be using the original model described inChoy et. al. (2011) using twitter data to forecast the next US president.