Investment and risk management with online news and heterogeneous networks

• Main Authors: ANG, Meng Kiat Gary, LIM, Ee-peng
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2023
• Subjects: Graph neural networks; transformers; attention mechanisms; time-series forecasting; networks; multimodality; embeddings; finance; natural language processing; Communication Technology and New Media; Databases and Information Systems; Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/sis_research/7899; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/sis_research/article/8902/viewcontent/3532858_pv.pdf
• Institution: Singapore Management University

Stock price movements in financial markets are influenced by large volumes of news from diverse sources on the web, e.g., online news outlets, blogs, social media. Extracting useful information from online news for financial tasks, e.g., forecasting stock returns or risks, is, however, challenging due to the low signal-to-noise ratios of such online information. Assessing the relevance of each news article to the price movements of individual stocks is also difficult, even for human experts. In this article, we propose the Guided Global-Local Attention-based Multimodal Heterogeneous Network (GLAM) model, which comprises novel attention-based mechanisms for multimodal sequential and graph encoding, a guided learning strategy, and a multitask training objective. GLAM uses multimodal information, heterogeneous relationships between companies and leverages significant local responses of individual stock prices to online news to extract useful information from diverse global online news relevant to individual stocks for multiple forecasting tasks. Our extensive experiments with multiple datasets show that GLAM outperforms other state-of-the-art models on multiple forecasting tasks and investment and risk management application case-studies.