CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting
This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the ‘over‐optimism’ and ‘miscalibration’ effects of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases the likelihood of...
Saved in:
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Format: | text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soa_research/1161 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soa_research/article/2160/viewcontent/CEO_OverconfidenceMgtForecasting_2016.pdf |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Institution: | Singapore Management University |
Language: | English |
id |
sg-smu-ink.soa_research-2160 |
---|---|
record_format |
dspace |
spelling |
sg-smu-ink.soa_research-21602019-12-16T07:46:09Z CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting HRIBAR, Paul YANG, Holly I. This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the ‘over‐optimism’ and ‘miscalibration’ effects of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases the likelihood of issuing a forecast. Second, we examine whether overconfidence increases the amount of optimism in management forecasts. Third, we examine whether overconfidence increases the specificity and precision of the forecast. We use both options‐ and press‐based measures to proxy for individual overconfidence, and find support for all three research questions. We further find that the results are concentrated among firms that provide forecasts sporadically, consistent with overconfidence playing a stronger role when managers have more flexibility in determining forecast properties. 2016-03-01T08:00:00Z text application/pdf https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soa_research/1161 info:doi/10.1111/1911-3846.12144 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soa_research/article/2160/viewcontent/CEO_OverconfidenceMgtForecasting_2016.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Research Collection School Of Accountancy eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University overconfidence voluntary forecast earnings management Accounting Corporate Finance Human Resources Management |
institution |
Singapore Management University |
building |
SMU Libraries |
continent |
Asia |
country |
Singapore Singapore |
content_provider |
SMU Libraries |
collection |
InK@SMU |
language |
English |
topic |
overconfidence voluntary forecast earnings management Accounting Corporate Finance Human Resources Management |
spellingShingle |
overconfidence voluntary forecast earnings management Accounting Corporate Finance Human Resources Management HRIBAR, Paul YANG, Holly I. CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting |
description |
This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the ‘over‐optimism’ and ‘miscalibration’ effects of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases the likelihood of issuing a forecast. Second, we examine whether overconfidence increases the amount of optimism in management forecasts. Third, we examine whether overconfidence increases the specificity and precision of the forecast. We use both options‐ and press‐based measures to proxy for individual overconfidence, and find support for all three research questions. We further find that the results are concentrated among firms that provide forecasts sporadically, consistent with overconfidence playing a stronger role when managers have more flexibility in determining forecast properties. |
format |
text |
author |
HRIBAR, Paul YANG, Holly I. |
author_facet |
HRIBAR, Paul YANG, Holly I. |
author_sort |
HRIBAR, Paul |
title |
CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting |
title_short |
CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting |
title_full |
CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting |
title_fullStr |
CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting |
title_sort |
ceo overconfidence and management forecasting |
publisher |
Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soa_research/1161 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soa_research/article/2160/viewcontent/CEO_OverconfidenceMgtForecasting_2016.pdf |
_version_ |
1770571662915272704 |