CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting

This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the ‘over‐optimism’ and ‘miscalibration’ effects of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases the likelihood of...

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Main Authors: HRIBAR, Paul, YANG, Holly I.
Format: text
Language:English
Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2016
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Online Access:https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soa_research/1161
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soa_research/article/2160/viewcontent/CEO_OverconfidenceMgtForecasting_2016.pdf
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Institution: Singapore Management University
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spelling sg-smu-ink.soa_research-21602019-12-16T07:46:09Z CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting HRIBAR, Paul YANG, Holly I. This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the ‘over‐optimism’ and ‘miscalibration’ effects of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases the likelihood of issuing a forecast. Second, we examine whether overconfidence increases the amount of optimism in management forecasts. Third, we examine whether overconfidence increases the specificity and precision of the forecast. We use both options‐ and press‐based measures to proxy for individual overconfidence, and find support for all three research questions. We further find that the results are concentrated among firms that provide forecasts sporadically, consistent with overconfidence playing a stronger role when managers have more flexibility in determining forecast properties. 2016-03-01T08:00:00Z text application/pdf https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soa_research/1161 info:doi/10.1111/1911-3846.12144 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soa_research/article/2160/viewcontent/CEO_OverconfidenceMgtForecasting_2016.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Research Collection School Of Accountancy eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University overconfidence voluntary forecast earnings management Accounting Corporate Finance Human Resources Management
institution Singapore Management University
building SMU Libraries
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider SMU Libraries
collection InK@SMU
language English
topic overconfidence
voluntary forecast
earnings management
Accounting
Corporate Finance
Human Resources Management
spellingShingle overconfidence
voluntary forecast
earnings management
Accounting
Corporate Finance
Human Resources Management
HRIBAR, Paul
YANG, Holly I.
CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting
description This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the ‘over‐optimism’ and ‘miscalibration’ effects of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases the likelihood of issuing a forecast. Second, we examine whether overconfidence increases the amount of optimism in management forecasts. Third, we examine whether overconfidence increases the specificity and precision of the forecast. We use both options‐ and press‐based measures to proxy for individual overconfidence, and find support for all three research questions. We further find that the results are concentrated among firms that provide forecasts sporadically, consistent with overconfidence playing a stronger role when managers have more flexibility in determining forecast properties.
format text
author HRIBAR, Paul
YANG, Holly I.
author_facet HRIBAR, Paul
YANG, Holly I.
author_sort HRIBAR, Paul
title CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting
title_short CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting
title_full CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting
title_fullStr CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting
title_full_unstemmed CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting
title_sort ceo overconfidence and management forecasting
publisher Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
publishDate 2016
url https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soa_research/1161
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soa_research/article/2160/viewcontent/CEO_OverconfidenceMgtForecasting_2016.pdf
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