Non-fundamental expectations and economic fluctuations: Evidence from professional forecasts

• المؤلفون الرئيسيون: Choy, Keen Meng, Leong, Kenneth, Tay, Anthony S.
• التنسيق: text
• اللغة: English
• منشور في: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2006
• الموضوعات: Non-fundamental expectations; Sunspots; Economic fluctuations; Survey of professional forecasters; Vector autoregressions; Econometrics; Macroeconomics
• الوصول للمادة أونلاين: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/163; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/1162/viewcontent/NonFundamentalExpectationsEconFluc_2006_JM_pp.pdf

It is theoretically possible that non-fundamental idiosyncratic shocks to agents’ rational expectations are a source of economic fluctuations. Studies using data on consumer and investor sentiment suggest that this is indeed an important source of fluctuations. We present the results of a study that...