Performance of the Official Composite Leading Index for Monitoring the Singapore Economy
This paper attempts to evaluate the performance of an official composite leading index (CLI) which is used for economic forecasting in Singapore. To examine whether the CU or its component leading indicators presage activity over the business cycle, we use bivariate time series techniques. Crossamla...
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| Format: | text |
| Language: | English |
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Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
1993
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| Online Access: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/488 |
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| Institution: | Singapore Management University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | This paper attempts to evaluate the performance of an official composite leading index (CLI) which is used for economic forecasting in Singapore. To examine whether the CU or its component leading indicators presage activity over the business cycle, we use bivariate time series techniques. Crossamlation functions are estimated to determine the strength of leadlag relationships between the leading indicators and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The predictive ability of the CLI is also assessed by its contribution towards time series model forewts of the economy. |
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