Estimation of time-varying adjusted probability of informed trading and probability of symmetric order-flow shock
Recently Duarte and Young (2009) study the probability of informed trading (PIN) proposed by Easley et al. (2002) and decompose it into two parts: the adjusted PIN (APIN) as a measure of asymmetric information and the probability of symmetric order-flow shock (PSOS) as a measure of illiquidity. They...
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| Format: | text |
| Language: | English |
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Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
2013
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| Online Access: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/1398 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/2397/viewcontent/PR_JAE_R3.pdf |
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| Institution: | Singapore Management University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | Recently Duarte and Young (2009) study the probability of informed trading (PIN) proposed by Easley et al. (2002) and decompose it into two parts: the adjusted PIN (APIN) as a measure of asymmetric information and the probability of symmetric order-flow shock (PSOS) as a measure of illiquidity. They provide some cross-section estimates of these measures using daily data over annual periods. In this paper we propose a method to estimate daily APIN and PSOS by extending the method in Tay et al. (2009) using high-frequency transaction data. Our empirical results show that while PIN is positively contemporaneously correlated with variance, APIN is not. On the other hand, PSOS is positively correlated with daily average e ective spread and variance, which is consistent with the interpretation of PSOS as a measure of illiquidity. Compared to APIN, PSOS exhibits clustering and sporadic bursts over time. |
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