Statistical tests for multiple forecast comparison
We consider a multivariate version of the Diebold–Mariano test for equal predictive ability of three or more forecasting models. The Wald-type test, S, which has a null distribution that is asymptotically chi-squared, is shown to be generally invariant with respect to the ordering of the models bein...
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| المؤلفون الرئيسيون: | , |
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| التنسيق: | text |
| اللغة: | English |
| منشور في: |
Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
2012
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| الموضوعات: | |
| الوصول للمادة أونلاين: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2331 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/3330/viewcontent/Statistical_Tests_for_Multiple_Forecast.pdf |
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| المؤسسة: | Singapore Management University |
| اللغة: | English |
| الملخص: | We consider a multivariate version of the Diebold–Mariano test for equal predictive ability of three or more forecasting models. The Wald-type test, S, which has a null distribution that is asymptotically chi-squared, is shown to be generally invariant with respect to the ordering of the models being compared. Finite-sample corrections for the test are also developed. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that S has reasonable size properties in large samples but tends to be oversized in moderate samples. The finite-sample correction succeeds in correcting for size, but only partially. For the size-adjusted tests, power increases with sample size, as expected. It is speculated that further finite-sample improvements can be achieved using Hotelling’s T2 or bootstrap critical values. |
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