Self-exciting jumps, learning, and asset pricing implications

• Main Authors: FULOP, Andras, LI, Junye, YU, Jun
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2015
• Subjects: stock-prices; excess volatility; financial-markets; levy processes; predictability; returns; simulation; finite; risk; Finance; Finance and Financial Management
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2356; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/3355/viewcontent/Self_exciting_jumps_2015_av.pdf
• Institution: Singapore Management University

The paper proposes a self-exciting asset pricing model that takes into account co-jumps between prices and volatility and self-exciting jump clustering. We employ a Bayesian learning approach to implement real-time sequential analysis. We find evidence of self-exciting jump clustering since the 1987 market crash, and its importance becomes more obvious at the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis. We also find that learning affects the tail behaviors of the return distributions and has important implications for risk management, volatility forecasting, and option pricing.