Economic forecasting in an epidemic: A break from the past?

• Main Authors: CHOW, Hwee Kwan, CHOY, Keen Meng
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2021
• Subjects: Survey data; COVID-19; leader following and herding behaviour; disagreement; uncertainty; Econometrics; Growth and Development
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2549; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/3548/viewcontent/Chow_and_Choy_wp.pdf
• Institution: Singapore Management University

This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive ability and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the Covid-19 epidemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we utilise a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated...